It’s Election 2024!
Calls for pre-budget election grow, making poll this year most likely
FINE Gael ministers are urging Taoiseach Leo Varadkar to go to the country early – with some Cabinet members now favouring a prebudget general election, the Irish Mail on Sunday has learned.
The clamour within the Coalition for an early election grew this week in the wake of the latest disappointing poll setback for Sinn Féin. Cabinet sources said the urgency on decisions relating to major capital projects has waned in recent weeks – a clear sign the Government is preparing for a general election.
It comes as support for Mary Lou MacDonald’s Sinn Féin dropped by 6% to 28% in the Irish Times/Ipsos BA poll published this week, their lowest figure in years.
The Republican populist party has also fallen in other national polls; the most recent Business Post/Red C survey found their support
‘Defectors are switching to Independents’
has dropped back to their 2020 general election figure. This has emboldened Fine Gael ministers in particular, who are urging the Taoiseach to call an early general election to wrong-foot Sinn Féin, which is relying on June’s local elections to swell the ranks of their Dáil candidates.
As revealed in last week’s MoS, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin is also coming under pressure from some of his own senior ministers to go to the country early, but the Tánaiste’s preference is for the Coalition to serve out its full term.
While buoyed by Sinn Féin poll woes, there is concern within Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael that parties are not benefiting from their rivals’ drop in support.
The latest poll shows Sinn Féin defectors are instead switching to Independents, whose support has risen to 25%. Many in Government attribute this to the growing antiimmigration stance taken by some Independent TDs, councillors and candidates. A smaller number of Fianna Fáil ministers believe an early election is the best option for the current Coalition to be reelected, with some preferring a national ballot before the local and European elections in June.
However, this is unlikely, and has been made more so by the surge in popularity for Independents.
One Fine Gael minister told the MoS: ‘The fall for Sinn Féin has not gone significantly to the Government parties; it has gone to the Independents, and that means Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael councillors are going to lose seats in the locals. ‘If you look at Sinn Féin in 2019 [local elections]; they selected councillors to run in the general election, and then those councillors lost their seats and they had to redraw tickets. We have to wait. The discussion now, however, is do we have a budget or not. If we have a budget, that locks us in until late November and really, with most of the tax and social welfare provisions kicking in in the New Year, it is February before people start seeing the boost in the pay packets or social welfare payments.’
Those arguing for ‘no budget strategy’ believe the Government should go to the country in September to ‘catch Sinn Féin on the hop’.
A Cabinet source noted governments generally have an easier time over the summer than opposition parties. The minister said: ‘They [opposition] don’t have the Dáil and Seanad to land blows, and generally in a general election year the opposition find the summer very difficult.’
However, there remains a strong body of opinion behind the Tánaiste and Green Party leader Eamon Ryan’s preference for the Coalition to serve out its full term.
A Green source said: ‘We aren’t certain to be back in power, so we want to get as many of our policies on the statute books or bedded in before we go.’
For some Fianna Fáil TDs, however, the main argument against an early election is housing. One FF minister told the MoS: ‘I am not convinced of a difference between November and March [2025] for an election… think of the number of extra houses that can be built between November and March. I believe we should go all the way.’
A Cabinet member familiar with the Tánaiste’s views on a general election date also said Mr Martin wants to build as many houses as possible before going to the country. The minister told the MoS: ‘Micheál believes that we missed out on many opportunities to enact policies because of Covid, and also, it took nearly half a year to form a government at all.’
Sources close to Mr Varadkar said the most likely ‘compromise is late October/early November this year’. Summing up the dilemma facing the Taoiseach, one senior minister told the MoS: ‘The next election will decide whether Ireland continues on its centrist path or turns to populism.’
‘The main argument against it is housing’