Could Leo opt for a ‘Spanish surprise’?

TAOISEACH Leo Varadkar is being urged to spring ‘a Spanish surprise’ by going to the country early after the June local elections.

Sources within Fine Gael said Mr Varadkar was impressed by the response of the Spanish Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to huge gains made to the right-wing opposition in regional and municipal elections last year by calling a snap general election.

At the time, the decision was criticised as a ‘high-risk gamble’. But in the subsequent election, his government surprised most onlookers by securing enough seats to be returned to office.

One Fine Gael strategist told the Irish Mail on Sunday: ‘A lot of the party top brass see this as representing a template. Call the election while Sinn Féin are on the hop, claim the election is being called because the local elections represent the natural end of the Government’s mandate, and that now that we have new councils… we should now elect a new Dáil.’

The source added: ‘The timing works for us [Fine Gael] on two fronts. If Sinn Féin are in disarray, we hit them when they’re weak with a summer election where everyone is in good form, and if they’ve surged we go before they get a chance to consolidate. As for Fianna Fáil and the Greens, they can look after themselves.’

Another senior Fine Gael TD: ‘The Spanish precedent is informing preelection planning. He [Varadkar] could decide and go without any warning.’

In a reference to former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern’s ‘surprise’ early dash to the Áras in 2007, when the then-Taoiseach shocked even his own party by calling the election early on a Sunday morning, one senior Fine Gael figure said: ‘He [Leo] might surprise them all and just disappear up to [President] Michael D [Higgins], one Sunday. It would certainly appeal to his sense of mischief.’

Mr Varadkar has repeatedly stressed he is not ‘planning’ for an early election, although sources have indicated the Taoiseach would prefer to go to the country this year.

However, Tánaiste and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin and the Green Party’s Eamon Ryan have both publicly stated their desire for the Coalition to see out its full term in office, which expires next spring.

A source said of the election timing: ‘The chances of an agreed election date between the three of them is impossible. Leo is determined to go in 2024, the other two are determined not to.

‘It is his [the Taoiseach’s] prerogative. He should grab the bull by the horns and let the chips fall where they will.’

One veteran Fine Gael figure added: ‘The hierarchy within the party is very geared up. Suddenly, its very feverish in there. There is a sense that everyone is on high alert.

‘A bad council election result for Sinn Féin could precipitate a very swift decision. If there isn’t a huge surge the pressure could be unbearable.’