Early election likely to see out full term Despite Harris’s plan as new taoiseach Independents follow ‘Verona template’ to win over disgruntled Coalition supporters
Cabinet colleagues doubt Dáil discipline can be kept up, saying ‘natural causes’ will f inish off Government
THERE is a growing acceptance among Coalition leaders that an early general election will take place in the autumn, senior Government sources told the Irish Mail on Sunday.
Taoiseach-in-waiting Simon Harris has said he wants to see out the full term in government – legally up to March 22 next year.
But there is a belief among some of his Cabinet colleagues that ‘natural causes’ will call time on the Coalition before then.
With at least one more Fine Gael TD
‘We need to send a message of stability’
expected to announce they will not be standing in the next general election, party chiefs admit it will be difficult to maintain Dáil discipline when the Oireachtas returns after the summer recess.
Several influential Independent TDs have said they want a general election to happen in the autumn.
And, significantly, Fianna Fáil ministers told the MoS that they see it as ‘next to impossible to hold Dáil discipline’ from September on.
One Fianna Fáil minister said: ‘It will even be a challenge to get a budget through in September or October. It’s just human nature. When so many people are retiring you have very little to threaten them with. There is little personal interest for retiring Fine Gael TDs to hold it together. Let’s face it, some of their senior figures have hardly displayed loyalty to the party or the Government in recent times.’
The Cabinet source pointed out that the Coalition is ‘already reliant on Independents to either go missing for contentious votes or vote with us, yet we are aware that many of those Independents want to see this done and dusted by Christmas.’
They added: ‘Besides anything else, polls are showing increasing support for Independents so they want to capitalise on that.’
However, sources close to Mr Harris said they are confident the Government will see out its term, countering many claims from those who say that it will be difficult to continue through the autumn.
Indeed, sources inside Simon Harris’s close circle said they are confident he will meet the next US president – whether it be Joe Biden or Donald Trump – at the Oval Office and still run a March election campaign. Traditionally the Oval Office meeting is close to St Patrick’s Day.
One source told the MoS: ‘There is nothing to stop the general election being held on the last possible date – March 22, 2025 – and Simon shooting over to Washington for a truncated visit during the last days of the campaign.
‘Indeed, what better message to the electorate of stability and continuity than seeing the Taoiseach with the most powerful man in the world while letting them think of the appalling vista of a Sinn Féin leader there?’
Mr Harris’s supporters also believe there will be minimal disruption from by-elections, as only one Government TD – Barry Cowen – is standing for election to the European Parliament.
‘Simon is determined for it to go all the way to March. We need to send the public a message that there is stability and continuity. That means sustaining a Dáil to its full term,’ a source said.
Sources close to the new Fine Gael leader said they expect to see the return of several familiar faces from the ‘Enda Kenny years’.
One source said: ‘You can expect backroom people and advisers who were around during Enda’s years to return. Simon will be channelling his inner Enda Kenny.’
Meanwhile, Mr Harris’s Cabinet colleagues say they expect few changes in the upcoming minireshuffle of Fine Gael TDs sparked by Taoiseach Leo Varadkar’s decision to stand down.
Some sources said ministers Simon Coveney (Enterprise) and Helen McEntee (Justice) are the ones most under threat.
Uncertainty over Mr Coveney’s future grew this week after his adviser, former Newstalk presenter Chris Donoghue, was poached by the incoming taoiseach.
There is internal unease about moving someone of Mr Coveney’s seniority and standing within the party. But one source warned: ‘There needs to be blood on his hands if he [Harris] is to take command of his party. Not buckets of it, but enough to need a mop.’
However, one senior minister predicted that both Mr Coveney and Ms McEntee could be safe as the new taoiseach will opt for minimal
changes. They pointed out that, in the case of Ms McEntee, sacking or demoting her would be an admission that the Cabinet was wrong to back her in Sinn Féin’s unsuccessful motion of no confidence in the Justice Minister last December.
Additionally, there are fears the young mother may decide to quit politics if she is demoted.
The minister told the MoS: ‘The only objective of the new taoiseach is to hold seats so, yes, if he was confident that the Government will continue for a year, then he could ring the changes. But he’s not confident of that, so he will have to keep the ship steady.
‘If Coveney stays in Cabinet, he runs again, giving Fine Gael a seat. So again, there are more risks to dropping him than there are rewards,’ they added.
As Mr Harris was not swept to leadership by a group who would now seek reward, but attained the leadership by default, there is no pressure on him now to create space at Cabinet.
The incoming taoiseach will have his own Cabinet position to fill, along with two minister of state jobs, assuming the promotion to senior minister comes from the junior ranks.
With Junior Minister for European Affairs Peter Burke expected to get the promotion to Cabinet, his most sought-after of junior ministerial roles will become vacant.
There is also a junior education ministry to fill following outgoing Fine Gael TD Josepha Madigan’s announcement that she intends to step aside.
The need for a potentially larger
‘There needs to be blood on his hands’
reshuffle was eased by the decision of Kerry TD Brendan Griffin not to return to the party fold.
But Mr Fitzmaurice stressed: ‘There is a lot more coming.’ Providing a regional breakdown of its candidates, Mr Fitzmaurice said there ‘will be 12 on Galway city and county, and three in Roscommon’.
Up to 14 will run in the Cork city and county political heartland of party leader Michael Collins.
Mr Fitzmaurice added: ‘We are talking to a lot of people. There will be candidates in Westmeath, in Sligo and in Longford.’
He also said the party will stage a series of ‘regional rallies’ to boost its profile in the countdown to the June local and European elections.
Other high profile Independent TDs want to capitalise on the growing sense of voter detachment from the main political parties. Influential Tipperary TD Michael Lowry – on whose support the Coalition often relied – is fielding five candidates in the five electoral areas in the north of his home county.
Commenting on the relatively small number of Lowry-backed candidates, a local source said: ‘There are five candidates because we are seeking a 100% success rate.’
Sources said Lowry’s team is also considering moves to expand into the south of the country, which has been split into two separate constituencies by last year’s boundary review.
‘A number of requests from
Cllr Thomas accused Fianna Fáil of being detached, and said he had been left with no option but to sever his links with the party.
Cllr Walsh announced he will contest the local elections under the Independent Ireland banner.
Commenting on the Independent manoeuvres, one non-party TD said: ‘The big parties are terrified. The Lowry and the Verona template is catching like wildfire.
‘They’re facing real competition, and unlike Sinn Féin we will have more than enough candidates if there is a vote there.’