Who’s leading the electoral scrolls?
Main opposition party has bigger social media following than the rest put together – but like their rivals, they’re ‘getting a battering’
ALL of the established political parties are ‘getting a battering’ from a ‘very cynical’ online audience across social media platforms ahead of a trio of looming elections, according to a leading communications expert.
A detailed analysis by social media analyst Damien Mulley indicates that a substantial protest vote from disillusioned sections of the population will be a significant factor at the ballot box, with Independent candidates the likely beneficiaries. An analysis by the Irish Mail on Sunday last week showed up to 40 Independents are likely to be returned to the next Dáil.
According to Mr Mulley, Sinn Féin – which had been adept at harnessing anti-Government sentiment online – is also increasingly finding itself in the firing line on social media.
The main opposition party is far and away the most dominant on social media in terms of numbers, with more followers across all the main platforms – Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, TikTok and YouTube – than all the other parties combined.
But the most-followed individuals, according to a recent analysis by Mulley Communications, are Fine Gael men – Leo Varadkar (788,600) and his successor as Taoiseach Simon Harris (542,700). In third place is Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald with 446,000 followers.
And the most impressive growth since a previous analysis in 2022 came from two prominent opposition parties and their leaders – the Social Democrats and People Before Profit–Solidarity.
Mr Mulley told the Irish Mail on Sunday: ‘If you’re in opposition and you criticise the Government around health or housing, you’re going to get a good, positive reaction.
‘But then if you’re in government – and if you’ve been there for a long time – and you announce something about housing, for example, you’re going to get mostly negativity around that.
‘No matter what positive thing you’re doing, you’re the incumbent and all these other issues that are happening are going to be thrown back in your face,’ he explained.
But even opposition accounts get hammered ‘if you mention international protection or immigrants’ in an increasingly toxic online sphere.
Here’s how the main political parties are performing on social media…
SINN FÉIN
THE main opposition party has 925,900 followers across all its social media channels, up almost 84% since 2022, when it already had four times the following of the next contender, Labour.
It has led the way with its use of social media, pumping more resources into harnessing its reach. This year, it has spent over €44,000 on social media ads compared to less than €8,500 spent by Fine Gael and even less by Fianna Fáil. No other opposition party has spent more than €2,500 on social media ads this year.
Mr Mulley’s sentiment analysis of Sinn Féin’s recent TikTok posts shows ‘a mix of positive and negative’ reactions.
He said: ‘Supporters express a desire for change and appreciate the party’s stance on social issues, while critics are sceptical of their ability to deliver on promises.’
PBP – SOLIDARITY
FOLLOWERS of the party online increased by an impressive 73% since 2022, with two of its most vocal members, Richard Boyd
Barrett and Paul Murphy, surging in follower numbers in that time.
Mr Boyd Barrett witnessed a ‘remarkable increase’, Mr Mulley said, jumping from 67,100 to 179,000 followers on Instagram, making him currently the most followed Irish political leader on the platform.
Mr Murphy’s TikTok follower numbers went from just 381 in 2022 to 52,700.
Mr Mulley noted it is ‘easier’ to get approval in opposition, but praised the pair’s messaging and frequented unscripted pieces direct to camera.
‘Even the simple things like the titles and the imagery that they’re using – they do feel like they actually use those platforms. It’s not as if the social media manager is going “Paul, say this into the camera” – which seemed to be the case with [Tánaiste and Fianna Fáil leader] Micheál Martin.’
FINE GAEL
THE party grew just 14% – to 125,000 followers – across all platforms in two years, though Mr Mulley pointed to ‘notable strides on TikTok, which could indicate an evolving strategy to capture a younger demographic’.
Its two leaders in that time, Leo Varadkar and Simon Harris, have the strongest following of any individuals, but that could mean little to voters beyond their respective constituencies.
‘It’s all well and good having the TikTok Taoiseach [Mr Harris] and doing stuff on social media,’ Mr Mulley told the MoS. ‘But when it comes to the ballot paper, you’re looking at it saying: “Who’s this person I’ve never heard of?” So you’d have to have the local candidates being good on social media as well.’
FIANNA FÁIL
FIANNA Fáil grew just 12% – to 115,983 followers – in the two years and is ‘totally getting battered’ in comments, Mr Mulley said.
‘Fianna Fáil faces overwhelming criticism for their handling of the housing crisis, immigration policies, and leadership. Comments express a strong desire for change and accountability, with many calling for the party’s removal from power.’
Party leader Micheál Martin is the fifth most-followed politician overall, with 288,900 subscribers to his various platforms.
LABOUR
LABOUR didn’t grow its following much in the past two years
either, although it still has more followers across all platforms than any of the three Government parties, at 141,700.
Mr Mulley noted that the party has made some ground on TikTok, ‘highlighting their ability to expand their reach and engage with a broader audience’.
And even though it has been out of government for eight years, Labour is not immune to scathing criticism, according to Mr Mulley’s analysis.
‘They started doing stuff on TikTok around health and housing, and – for what is meant to be a young social network – the comments they were getting back were: “You can’t really talk, you were in charge of housing, you were in charge of this, that. So you’re being hypocrites.”’
Ivana Bacik has the fewest followers of the main party leaders, at 41,500.
GREEN PARTY
THE Greens showed the least growth in follower numbers over the past two years, expanding by just 3.5%, or 2,261 people, across all platforms.
And Eamon Ryan has the secondlowest following for a party leader, with 69,000 across all platforms.
Mr Mulley’s sentiment analysis of TikTok user comments shows they are ‘predominantly negative, focusing on criticisms of the party’s policies on environmental issues and housing’.
He added: ‘There is a significant sentiment of distrust towards the leadership and a call for political action against the party.’
SOCIAL DEMOCRATS
THE Social Democrats grew the most by far in the past two years, swelling by 233% to 146,900 followers across all platforms.
The party experienced ‘remarkable’ growth on Instagram, going from 4,300 to 42,900 followers. And
TikTok likes (not followers) skyrocketed from 87,300 to 1.4 million. Party leader Holly Cairns had 133,500 followers across all platforms at the time of Mr Mulley’s analysis.
He said the comments on the party’s TikTok posts ‘reveal deep concerns about disability assessments, Government policies, and the broader challenges facing disabled individuals in Ireland.
‘The sentiment ranges from anxiety and frustration to determination and advocacy, highlighting the complexity of the issues at hand and the diverse perspectives within the community.’