POLL: BRASSIL UNDER PRESSURE FROM FOLEY
JOHN Brassil could be at risk of losing his seat to running-mate Norma Foley based on the results of Tuesday night’s TG4 Kerry constituency poll.
The poll – carried out over the weekend by Ipsos MRBI and provided courtesy of TG4 – shows Deputy Brassil on nine per cent, a point behind his Tralee-based FF colleague Cllr Norma Foley.
Deputy Brassil and Cllr Foley are also facing a stiff challenge from the Green Party’s Cleo Murphy, who is riding high on the Green Wave with nine per cent. All three look likely to be in the shake-up for the fifth and final seat.
Comparing their poll share with the total vote in 2016, Deputy Brassil, Cllr Foley and Ms Murphy could be tightly bunched, with between 7,000 and 8,000 votes each at the first count.
Fianna Fáil’s ambitions of taking a second Kerry seat remain a difficult but potentially possible proposition. Transfers from FF’s south Kerry-based candidate Norma Moriarty and its share of the Tralee and Killarney vote are likely to be key to the outcome.
A fly in the ointment for Fianna Fáil comes in the form of Tralee-based Sinn Féin candidate Cllr Pa Daly. As it has in the rest of the country, Sinn Féin’s vote has surged in Kerry, and Cllr Daly is tied with Michael Healy-Rae on 20 per cent.
Though Michael Healy-Rae could repeat his poll-topping 2016 performance, the combined Healy-Rae vote looks to have slumped.
In 2016, he and his brother Danny took 38 per cent of the poll between them – correctly predicted by that year’s TG4 poll – but this year’s Ipsos survey has their combined vote dropping by 14 per cent. If that were repeated on polling day, Danny Healy-Rae’s seat could be in jeopardy if he has to rely on a significant number of transfers.
TUESDAY’S TG4 Kerry General Election poll contains more good news for Sinn Féin while the Healy-Rae clan will likely find the result worrying just three days from the election.
The constituency poll, carried out for TG4 by Ipsos MRBI, shows that Sinn Féin in Kerry is surfing the same wave of popularity the party has enjoyed across the rest of the country.
Cllr Pa Daly – who replaced Toireasa Ferris on the ticket following Ms Ferris’ shock decision to quit the Dáil race and later politics altogether – has emerged as a potential poll-topper with a massive 20 per cent share of the poll.
He’s tied for first place with Michael HealyRae, also on 20 per cent. Meanwhile, the news is bleak for Danny Healy-Rae at just four per cent.
It should be noted that Danny Healy-Rae’s poor showing mirrors his performance in the same poll in 2016. On that occasion, Danny Healy -Rae was also on four per cent in the TG4 poll but he went on to take over 12 per cent of the vote on polling day.
Though it underestimated Danny Healy Rae’s vote in 2016 – and overestimated his brother’s – that year’s TG4 poll did correctly predict that the Kilgarvan duo would take a combined 38 per cent of the Kerry vote.
The discrepancies in the TG4 polls’ predictions appear to relate to how the Healy-Rae vote is shared between the two brothers.
This time TG4 predict a combined share of 24 per cent. That would be a huge drop in their 2016 share and could see Danny Healy-Rae in jeopardy if he has to rely on a significant number of transfers.
Meanwhile, Fianna Fáil’s incumbent Deputy John Brassil is facing competition from his running mate Norma Foley and the Green’s Cleo Murphy.
Deputy Brassil is on nine per cent while his Tralee neighbour, Norma Foley, is slightly ahead on 10 per cent. Cleo Murphy – enjoying the ‘Green Wave’ and a lack of other left wing candidates on the ballot – is on nine per cent.
All three look like being in the shake-up for the fifth and final seat.
Comparing their poll share with the total vote in 2016, Deputy Brassil, Cllr Foley and Ms Murphy could be tightly packed with between 7,000 and 8,000 votes each at the first count.
Fianna Fáil’s ambition of taking a second Kerry seat remains a difficult but potentially possible proposition with transfers from Norma Moriarty and its share of the Tralee and Killarney vote likely to be key to the outcome.
The poll offers mixed news for Fine Gael. Tourism Minister Brendan Griffin – on 17 per cent – looks certain to retain his seat. However, his running mate Mike Kennelly looks set to lose out with a six per cent share leaving him with too much ground to make up.