The Kingdom goes to the polls

THIS Saturday, Kerry goes to the polls in what is set to be the most closely contested and fiercely fought elections seen in the county in decades.

Five seats are up for grabs and, with just days to go, the destination of at least three of them are nigh-on impossible to predict with any great degree of confidence.

The Healy-Rae clan’s barnstorming performance – capturing a phenomenal 38 per cent of the vote – caught everyone by surprise and effectively turned the five-seat constituency into a three-seater for the main parties.

Whether the Healy-Raes can repeat their 2016 performance remains to be seen but, whatever happens, it will still be an extremely tight race.

Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin all have a realistic chance of taking a seat, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael hopeful of picking up a second if the chips fall the right way.

Meanwhile, the Green Party’s Cleo Murphy could scupper her FF and FG rivals’ chance of a second seat. Though the Greens still look to be an outside bet for a seat, expect a strong performance from the party in Kerry as Cleo Murphy looks likely to hover up much of the liberal and anti-FF/FG vote.

The current wave of environmentalism and the absence of Labour on the ballot in Kerry will also do Ms Murphy’s prospects no harm.

As to what the candidates will need to take a seat the 2016 election provides some guidance.

What the Saturday vote will mean for turnout is impossible to predict, but the profile of the constituency has changed little since 2016.

Last time out Kerry – with a turnout of just under 71 per cent – the quota in Kerry was 13,213.

Three candidates made the quota: Michael and Danny Healy-Rae (who easily exceeded it) and Bredan Griffin, who crept over the line at the last count. Both Martin Ferris and John Brassil also made it, a few hundred votes under quota.

In 2016 a first-preference tally of at least 8,000 was needed to have a realistic chance of taking a seat. The tightly packed field this year could well see five or six candidates all on 5,000 to 6,000 votes when the count kicks off in earnest.