A three-way battle for final Kingdom seats, bookies say
IF the old chestnut is true that a bookmaker is rarely wrong, then current General Election odds suggest it’s going to be a successful outcome for Independents Danny and Michael Healy-Rae and Fine Gael’s Brendan Griffin, with a possible three-way shoot-out for the final two seats between Fianna Fáil’s Norma Foley and John Brassil and Sinn Féin’s Pa Daly.
Killorglin bookmaker Brendan Tyther puts Michael Healy-Rae – the red-hot favourite – on 1/100; Danny HealyRae is next on 1/33; Brendan Griffin at 1/5 and John Brassil at 1/4.
This trend has remained fairly consistent from the beginning of the campaign, with only a marginal fluctuation in odds for Pa Daly and Mike Kennelly, while Norma Foley has shortened from 2/1 into 4/9 since betting opened.
If such odds are to be believed, it means three of the seats in the Kerry constituency will go convincingly to the first three in the betting.
This sets up a mouth-watering prospect for political anoraks with a dogfight for the final two seats between Norma Foley (4/9), Pa Daly (4/7) and John Brassil (1/4) as the perception is that Brassil may slip into a three-way battle for the final two seats. This would place a sharp focus on the Tralee and north Kerry electoral area in particular.
Waterville-based Fianna Fáil councillor Norma Moriarty and Fine Gael’s Mike Kennelly are both next in the betting at 4/1, while the Green Party candidate from Kenmare, Cleo Murphy, is 16/1. It’s 50/1 bar the rest.
Brendan says the obvious ‘ health warning’ applies when predicting the prospects of candidates based on betting odds. But he feels the odds may point to a likely three-way tussle for the final two seats.
“No one is going to back at those prices, but they do offer an interesting insight as to what the outcome may be. It’s a barometer,” said Brendan. Tyther.
“The only one I’ve seen any money for in recent days is Norma Foley. She has been backed from 2/1 to 4/9.
“I’ve taken a bit of money too for Norma Moriarty, but I’d expect that, given where I’m based. People are also saying Norma Foley will take key votes from John Brassil in Tralee. It’s really all to play for,” he said.
If there is likely to be a surprise performer, Brendan feels Norma Moriarty could be the one. She is tipped by many to make a bold show.
However, it remains to be seen how influential fellow Fianna Fáil Cllr Michael Cahill’s support for Norma Foley will be.
If Cahill can sway the mid and south Kerry Fianna Fail vote and encourage FF voters to opt for Norma Foley, then it makes it more difficult for Cllr Moriarty. Cllr Cahill polled the highest of all Kerry’s Fianna Fáil candidates in last year’s local election (2,219 votes), and many believe he may yet have a big part to play in deciding who gets elected for Fianna Fail. “I think if Norma Moriarty can get the vote around Killarney, then she could well spring a surprise,” said Brendan.
“Norma (Moriarty) is the most local candidate we have here in Killorglin, but it remains to be seen how Michael Cahill’s backing of Foley will affect that. In general, the betting has been quiet slow so far but it can pick up in the final days.
“The Healy-Raes are certainly shaping up to be certainties. They got a big vote in north Kerry the last time. Whether or not the addition of Mike Kennelly affects this or not is hard to say,” said Brendan.