Coronavirus crisis escalates Worry as Kerry logs fifth-highest rate of cases
IRELAND’S fourth-most sparsely populated county now ranks fifth for the highest rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the country, in a deeply alarming outcome in Kerry as the ‘surge’ begins.
Monday night’s figures revealed that Kerry has already logged the fifth-highest rate of detected cases per head of capita, with 41 cases of COVID confirmed per 100,000 people.
It’s a figure going against all demographic-based expectations, with Kerry also having the distinction of being the county with the lowest rate of inter-county movement in the country.
One positive to be gleaned from the 60 confirmed Kerry cases revealed on Monday night is the fact that the rate of increase at least appears to be slowing down.
Ireland’s rate of increase has slowed significantly faster than that of the UK’s in fact under the most recent figures - at least in so far as the testing has revealed.
The 60 case figure is also far lower than that projected for Kerry at the outset of March. It had been feared the county would have been looking at 108 cases by the end of the month - but that did not factor in the suppression restrictions announced since March 12, up to the lockdown announcement of Friday.
They appear to be having the intended result to date, but that is no reason for complacency - quite the opposite.
Dr Eamonn Shanahan of Farranfore Medical Centre said the next two to three weeks are going to be key in terms of getting a handle on the prevalence of the virus in the county and country.
That the rate of increase is less than initial projections posited is cause for cautious optimism:
“Thus far the number of new cases is not accelerating at the rate we were fearing at least, but that doesn’t mean we are out of the woods. The problem is where are we going to be in three weeks time?” Dr Shanahan said.
It’s simply too early to tell to what extent the virus is gripping the county, he said.
“I don’t think anyone really knows that just yet as it is far too early. For me personally the figure I’m really interested in is the number of new cases every day. That’s the one that will give a sense of how this is progressing. The figure of confirmed cases will increase, but over time that will include many people who have had it and who have recovered.
“So the two key figures for me are, one, the number of new cases per day being detected and, two, the number dying per day.”
The rates of daily detections are, of course, a reflection of the level of testing underway here - which is coming under increasing pressure and facing more delays as stocks of a vital reagent run low.
Few GPs have yet to encounter a case of the virus in a patient.
Dr Shanahan said that up to four patients he had dealt with tested positive for COVID-19, one of whom required hospitalisation. Thankfully all are now recovering, including the hospitalisation case.
But the virus has meant the greater part of their clinical work now takes place over the phone. “We are still seeing patients, but about 95 per cent of our consultations now take place over the phone.
“95 per cent of calls we were fielding at the beginning of last week were Covid-related. That’s down to about 85 - 90 per cent of the phone calls this week.
“We’re starting to get more ordinary calls again this week, because the reality is that life goes on. Babies are being born, vaccinations are needed and so on. Check-ups are on hold, however.
“The advice now is that people with any respiratory symptoms are urged to self-isolate and contact us by phone.
“Anyone with underlying conditions as well are urged not to present in person but pick up the phone, for their own safety.”
GPs have been hit by greater administrative work, not least in even having to help people self-isolating access social welfare payments.
The scale of the response to COVID hit deeper as GPs in Kerry received notification from management of the Bons Secour Tralee this week informing them that the private hospital and University Hospital Kerry are now effectively operating as a single entity to fight the surge in Kerry.
Isolated units and ICU capacity are being scaled up in both amid a range of other crucial measures.
“The Bons and the General are now part of the one healthcare system. We have effectively created a national health service in less than a month,” Dr Shanahan said.
According to the most recent figures released by UHK, the hospital had 5 ICU beds, with four high-dependency beds in the Bons Secours, but both centres are scaling up capacity fast.
The race is on to provide capacity as at 200 cases Kerry would require ten ICU beds alone, for the 5 per cent requiring ICU treatment. And that’s without any provision for the non Covid patients presenting for intensive care.
“One of the big difficulties for everyone is the long-haul nature of this crisis. No one knows when it is going to end. To a certain extent this is our Second World War, a national emergency that will hopefully be a once-in-a-lifetime defining event,” Dr Shanahan added.
Sinn Féin TD for Kerry Pa Daly described the latest figures for Kerry as ‘deeply disappointing’ meanwhile.
“The rate of increase is at least slowing down, but the level of confirmed cases here is deeply disappointing,” Sinn Féin
TD for Kerry Pa Daly told The Kerryman.
At this stage in the crisis it is unclear as to why our figures are so high.
Though the rate of inter-county traffic pre-lockdown might have been low relative to other counties, Kerry was still served by international flights up until the middle of last week – with two routes out of London into the airport most days. However, Mayo is riding very low in the table despite even greater air connectivity with London and the continent through Knock.
The biggest single daily spike in confirmed cases in Kerry was between March 22 and 23, when it more than doubled from 15 to 33 – a week after hundreds of punters had returned from Cheltenham. Many punters had hit bars on their return, with some also attending weddings and other social gatherings.
Deputy Daly said it was very disappointing our relative remoteness and connectivity did not appear to be buffeting Kerry from the COVID tide. “I’m disappointed the figures are still going up as I had hoped that, by now, the virus would have been more or less eliminated in Kerry,” he said. “It is too early to tell why the rate here is as it is, but it shouldn’t be the case because of our peripherality..
“We can’t be sure about the sources of transmission because we just don’t have enough detail on the groups comprising the cases, whether it is health-care workers, ordinary citizens in the main and so on.”