Kerry v Dublin: Tadhg Morley moves into focus

ALL IRELAND SFC SEMI-FINAL Kerry v Dublin Sunday, August 28 Croke Park, 3.30pm Referee: David Gough (Meath)

WE’RE just going to come out with it right here at the start: we think Dublin are going to win this game.

Weighing up all the available evidence that’s really the only conclusion you can come to. It doesn’t discount the possibility of a Kerry victory out of hand, it merely places it in its correct context. There are so many factors in Dublin’s favour that they’re more likely as not to win the game.

Earlier this week the bookies had Dublin at 4/9 and Kerry at 5/2, meaning they gave Kerry about a thirty percent chance of winning the game and Dublin a seventy percent chance.

That, to us, seems about right. You could argue it overvalues Dublin a little and undervalues Kerry, but generally speaking it’s in and around the right ballpark. Dublin have earned the right to be considered such warm favourites.

Ever since the 2011 All Ireland final they’ve had the advantage over Kerry whenever it’s counted. Kerry have won the odd league game here and there – in Killarney last year, for instance – more often than not, however, Dublin have prevailed and done so quite comfortably.

The three point margin at the end of last year’s All Ireland final flattered Kerry. The eleven point margin in this year’s National League final felt about right for that particular game.

So what is the performance delta between these two sides? Is a Kerry team firing on all cylinders eleven points worse than a Dublin team firing on all cylinders? Almost certainly not.

That said it’s probably been more than three, maybe even as much as twice that and that’s the task that Kerry have set themselves over the past twelve months: can they improve by enough to overhaul the advantage Dublin have over them right now?

This is where it starts to get a little tricky. This is why those odds are so stacked in Dublin’s favour. Dublin we know. Dublin we’ve seen tested (Westmeath, Meath and Donegal all challenged them to a greater or lesser extent).

Can we really claim to know anything about Kerry on the basis of what we’ve seen since the league final? Three games against two Munster rivals, who both operated in Division 3 this spring, is no basis upon which to judge them.

That run to the semi-final has to have been detrimental to their chances of success this Sunday. It’s been far too long since Kerry have been in a do or die match, far too long since they’ve felt threatened in a meaningful way.

It’s all been too easy for them. It’s fair enough to point out that Dublin’s saunter through Leinster wasn’t especially challenging. Still, as we’ve noted, Meath and, especially, Westmeath gave them different things to think about at different times.

Westmeath did more to test Dublin’s mettle in the first half of the Leinster final than either Clare or Tipperary did Kerry over the entire course of the championship. Donegal may well have been poor a few weeks back, but they were well in that game with fifteen minutes to go.

Dublin with fourteen men had to dig deep, had to dig it out... Kerry simply haven’t had to do anything of the sort. That’s got to be worrying for Eamonn Fitzmaurice and his management team.

There’s a school of thought which suggests that none of this really matters, which posits that all that matters is the destination and not the journey. That Kerry can, much like in 2009, turn it on whenitcounts.

The 2009 analogy is problematic at best. For one thing Kerry were tested in a major way that summer. By Cork. By Sligo. By Antrim. For another the Dublin team of 2016 is about as far from the callow side of 2009 as you can get. This Dublin team have the experience of three All Ireland winning campaigns to draw upon. They’ve got warriors, men of real character in their side. The 2013 semi-final proved they’re not easily rattled, even by the green and gold.

If Kerry do turn all this around, if they grab that thirty percent chance and ride it to the All Ireland final, it will undoubtedly rank as one of the greatest triumphs in planning, team preparation and tactical acumen in the history of Kerry football.

The word is Kerry are as well prepared as they’ve ever been and feeling confident about their chances – word of warning, we heard similar things ahead of last year’s All Ireland final when the Kingdom fell flat.

The word is Fitzmaurice has something a little bit special up his sleeve. What that might be, we can’t say. It’s all speculation at this stage. People are sort of half expecting a shoot-out, but it’s just as likely that Fitzmaurice will go quite conservative in his approach.

We could be wrong but our sense is that doing so would be a mistake. Dublin would quite happily take the initiative. To win Kerry will need to get on the front foot right from the off, ensure there’s plenty of bodies – three minimum – in attack at all times. They must ensure they don’t get sucked into a defensive posture.

That’s what Dublin would want. They want Cian O’Sullivan to be left largely to his own devices and left to sweep up. Kerry need to get right up in O’Sullivan’s grill, don’t give him an inch or a moment’s rest.

And even if they do that, if they nail their kick-out strategy as they did in the All Ireland final, it might not be enough. Dublin are pound for pound the better team right now. They’re the better team and they’re the more settled team.

Who’s going to start for Kerry at midfield on Sunday? What is Kerry’s best midfield? Is Colm Cooper fit enough to play a part? Is Johnny Buckley? Should Paul Murphy play in defence or attack?

All questions in search of answers. To have to wait until an All Ireland semi-final to find out is far from ideal.

Verdict: Dublin