Kerry should survive Tyrone test but need favours to reach final

ALLIANZ NFL ROUND 7 Kerry v Tyrone Sunday, April 2 Fitzgerald Stadium, Killarney Throw-in at 2pm

STRANGE as it might seem but Seanie Johnston’s 74th minute equaliser in Breffni Park last Sunday hasn’t really changed what Kerry have to do and need to happen next Sunday to reach the League final.

Kerry still need to beat Tyrone, and they still need Dublin to beat Monaghan and Mayo to defeat Donegal. All that and overturn Donegal’s better scoring difference of +6 by beating Tyrone by, say, three, and needing Mayo to beat Donegal by four points.

Had Kerry won in Cavan last weekend they’d still need to beat Tyrone and have Dublin and Mayo win their respective games, albeit the margins Kerry would need to beat Tyrone by and Donegal to lose to Mayo by would be incrementally smaller.

It’s immaterial now, but a Kerry defeat to Cavan last week would have been much more troubling for the Kingdom, who’d still need to beat Tyrone on Sunday, but would, ironically, be rooting for Donegal to beat Mayo in Castlebar, all the while working under the assumption that Cavan would beat Roscommon in their fine game.

What is all proves is that despite the withdrawal of the semi-finals from the competition this year, the fear of final round (or penultimate round) ‘dead rubber’ games hasn’t materialised with all four of Sunday’s fixtures carrying significant weight with regard to the results.

With matters out of their own hands with respect to a top two finish, all Kerry can do is take care of business in Killarney and let matters elsewhere take care of themselves.

The visit of Tyrone should be enough to bring the best - or at least better than what they produced in Cavan - out of Kerry for a couple of reasons.

First, there’s still enough residual rivalry and personnel from the 2008 All-Ireland final and - more so - the 2012 Qualifier for these two teams to bring out the best (and worst?) in each other.

Second, this Tyrone is now regarded as enough of a genuine All-Ireland title contender for Kerry to want to and need to measure themselves against, especially as Tyrone are probably going to be toughest team Kerry will face between here and an All-Ireland quarter-final in August.

It looks like Sunday’s game will come too soon for James O’Donoghue (calf), Shane Enright (hamstring) and Killian Young (groin) who will probably be given more time to rehab those injuries now that victory against Sunday isn’t quite as vital as it might have been.

Peter Crowley appeared to pick up an injury that precipitated his substitution against Cavan, but the Kerry management will look to fall back on the wider panel with starts quite possible for Anthony Maher, Bryan Sheehan and possibly a couple of newer faces to the setup such as Cathal Ó Luing and Gavin Crowley.

For Tyrone to make the final they also need Dublin to beat Monaghan and Mayo to beat Donegal (as well as win in Killarney, obviously) and that will be Mickey Harte’s sole objective: to reverse that 2012 Qualifier result when Tyrone were completely outplayed in Fitzgerald Stadium.

Like Kerry, Tyrone’s campaign has mixed the good with the bad and has been fairly inconsistent. Their results sequence runs WDWWLL and the Red Hand will be anxious not to head for the Ulster Championship on the back of three straight losses.

They’ve only scored one goal (v Dublin) across their six games, which backs up the school of thought that they still don’t have the fire-power to win the All-Ireland. But they’re a mobile, high-tempo team and Kerry will have to produce the energy they had against Dublin, not the lethargy they displayed in Cavan, if they’re to finish the campaign with a win.

VERDICT: Kerry