Who will be the bolter to reach the All-Ireland semi-finals?

AND then there were 10. The Top 10? That’s a different matter, but as it stands the All-Ireland SFC is down to a nice, round divisible number. By Saturday evening barring draws - we’ll be down to eight, and by close of business on Sunday - again, barring a draw after extra-time - the race for the Sam Maguire will be among just six counties.

Right now the smart money says the semi-finals will be Kerry against Mayo and Dublin against Tyrone, but will it be that straight-forward?

All too often in recent Championships there’s been a familiar order to the top of the Championship pyramid and a predictability to the All-Ireland semi-finals. Kerry, Dublin, Mayo, Donegal and Tyrone have pretty much dominated the penultimate phase of the Championship for the last five or six years.

Only twice since 2010 has another county outside of that Big Five reached an All-Ireland semi-final. Last year, of course, Tipperary were, in many respects, the story of the Championship when they reached the their first All-Ireland senior football semi-final since 1935. Before that you’ve to go back to 2012 since a county other than Kerry, Dublin, Mayo, Tyrone or Donegal appeared in the last four of the Championship. That year - the last of only two times Kerry lost an All-Ireland quarter-final - Cork muscled their way to the penultimate stages, which given that they were All-Ireland champions in 2010 wasn’t that much of a surprise.

Given that Tipperary proved to be such an outlier in last year’s Championship it seems a lot to ask that another bolter can emerge from outside the Big Five (now a Big Four with Donegal’s exit last weekend), but if there is to be another ‘Tipperary’ who might oblige?

Of the chasing pack Monaghan and to a lesser extent, Galway, would look the bet fit in the semi-finals, given there recent appearances in the Quarter-finals and their general stature in the game of late.

Indeed, Monaghan would county themselves unfortunate / disappointed / frustrated at not having broken through into the last four at least once in the last four or five years.

Galway, too, must surely have spent a chunk of the winter kicking themselves at having dethroned Mayo in Connacht only to fall to Tipperary in the subsequent All-Ireland quarter-final. It’s hard to see them get a better chance to make the semi-finals and certainly they have it all to do to get past Kerry on Sunday.

Logic should suggest that Roscommon - as a provincial champion - should be placed to reach the semi-finals but they face a formidable and experienced foe in Mayo in what should be an intriguing Connacht backyard brawl transported to the city lights for the entertainment of the nation.

On the other side the draw form Kildare and Monaghan look capable of beating Armagh and Down respectively in the last of the Qualifiers, and if that comes to pass the quarter-finals on August 6 would see Dublin take on Monaghan and Tyrone face Kildare. A bolter? How about the Lilywhites to slap down the Red Hand? It’s not that implausible when you consider again how Kildare played against Dublin in the Leinster Final. Forget about the final score and all of that: Dublin remain untouchable in their own province, but Kildare, under the tutelage of Cian O’Neill showed enough that day to convince us they could topple Tyrone in a quarter-final.

Of course, just as Galway upset the odds to beat Donegal and Cork went mighty close top doing likewise against Mayo, shouldn’t we expect one of Down or Armagh to do likewise on Saturday? After all, Down have already beaten Monaghan in Ulster and Armagh showed a steely resolve not seen in the Orchard in a long time in their most recent Qualifier win over Tipperary.

The reality is, however, that despite Mayo’s trip through the Qualifiers for the second year in a row, and Donegal’s limp exit against Galway last weekend, there continues to be an all too familiar look about the main contenders in the All-Ireland title race.

As exciting as it would be for Roscommon or Kildare to break through to the All-Ireland semi-final, pause and consider what awaits them then: a semi-final against Kerry or Dublin respectively.

If the pretenders to the Kerry-Dublin duopoly think the climb to the summit is steep they’ll quickly learn the fall is vertical.

Photo by Sportsfile David Clarke of Mayo tips a goalbound effort from Cork’s Tomás Clancy over the ball during the All-Ireland Senior Football Championship Round 4A Qualifier between Cork and Mayo at the Gaelic Grounds in Co. Limerick.