Fergie syndrome for Ireland?

IT’S amazing how quickly authority can wane the moment a limit has been set upon it. US Presidents are rarely as fearsome or as effective in their second terms as their first as they begin to assume that most unwanted of titles, the lame duck.

So it is in politics could it also be in sport? Think back almost twenty years to the 2001 / 2002 Premier League season. Before it began Alex Ferguson announced it would be his last as manager of Manchester United, what followed was something of a cautionary tale.

By Christmas United were in ninth spot, following a December defeat at the hands of West Ham in Old Trafford. The link between Ferguson’s plan to retire and United’s insipid form seemed pretty obvious to a lot of observers and didn’t escape Alex Ferguson’s notice either.

The Scotsman reversed course over Christmas, announcing his intention to stay on and what followed was one of the more remarkable turnarounds in the history of football. United won thirteen of their final fifteen games to secure Champions League football for the following season.

It’s hardly a coincidence either that when Fergie finally did call it quits at Old Trafford he did so without warning, once the title had been wrapped up. Ferguson wasn’t going to make the same mistake twice.

Watching Ireland in the 6 Nations this season the thought has occurred to us more than once as to whether or not Joe Schmidt has made a mistake of a similar magnitude to Ferguson when he announced his intention to return to New Zealand at the end of the World Cup in Japan.

The drop off in Ireland’s form from the end of last year to the begging of this has been precipitous – Ireland’s struggles against Italy in Rome were an even greater cause for concern than the defeat to England in Lansdowne Road – can we attribute that to Schmidt’s impending departure?

Certainly we can’t rule it out, but we would say that these Irish players are self-interested and self-motivated to a very large extent. Why should Schmidt’s impending departure affect them when they retain the hunger and desire to do something significant on the world stage?

Probably you could have said something similar about United’s squad that season, but for whatever reason it doesn’t necessarily work out that way. Whatever strange alchemy there is between coach and players you don’t want to upset it.

The biggest counter-argument against the notion that Schmidt’s decision has upset the delicate balance in the Irish set-up is Wales’ performance in the very same championship – including a stirring and brilliantly executed victory over the English in Cardiff last Saturday afternoon.

Warren Gatland won’t be Wales manager this time next year, it’s the exact same situation as Ireland are in and the Welsh are currently the only team who can still win a Grand Slam this year and are easily the favourites to win the championship at the very least.

One final factor that would seem to cut against any notion that Fergie syndrome is affecting the Irish this 6 Nations is the presence of Andy Farrell on the coaching ticket. Are players really going to lose focus – and obviously this would be a subconscious thing – with the next boss on the scene?

While we wouldn’t completely discount Fergie syndrome, it just feels much more likely that what ails Ireland is a case of good old-fashioned nerves, pressure, with injury thrown in for good measure. The desire remains the same, the work-rate remains the same, Ireland are just forcing things a little bit, snatching instead of flowing.

These players are playing for themselves and each other, they’re playing for their coach, it’s just that for whatever reason it’s not working right now. You couldn’t fault the effort in Rome. The perspiration is not at issue, the inspiration is.

Instead of worrying about Fergie syndrome, the Irish faithful needs to hope that Schmidt can to do something in Fergie time – pull something out of the bag at the last minute, leaving rivals (hello Gatty!) in despair and reigniting that sense of invulnerability and omniscience. Anybody who doubts Schmidt usually ends up with egg on their face. Potential Fergie syndrome or no, it’s not a mistake we’re going to make. In Joe we trust.