The Kerryman (South Kerry Edition)
How the inter-county football championship might play out...
MAY 2/3 RESUMPTION Chances: highly unlikely
A MAY 2/3 return to playing action seems highly unlikely given that an extension of the suspension of all social and sporting gatherings and activity is expected to be announced by the government, and by extension the GAA, today (Wednesday).
Even in this scenario it’s impossible to see the National Leagues being completed, and the most logical action would be to void them and start again in 2021 with the same configurations for the four divisions.
With regard to Championship, a May 1 start up would mean all four provincial championships would start as originally planned, although the Connacht SFC, which involves games in New York and London, would probably have to be reworked to exclude those two teams this year.
JUNE 6/7 RESUMPTION Chances: fairly possible but unlikely
A LIFTING of social distancing protocols in early to mid May would afford counties about three weeks to get back training in preparation for a Championship starting on either the weekend of May 30/31 or June 6/7. The June start would mean that the provincial championships couldn’t go ahead along their intended timeline, so they would either have to be played over a condensed three/four week period or be scrapped as part of a wider reconfiguration. If the provincial championships were to be maintained they could be played on consecutive weekends which could see the finals played either on June 20/21 or June 27/28. That would still mean that the All-Ireland quarter-final Group Phase (ie. the Super 8s), which are scheduled to start on July 11/12, could proceed as intended, with the All-Ireland semi-finals on August 8/9 and the final three weeks later on August 30.
So far so good, but an issue will arise with regard to the Qualifiers and the Tier 2 Championship. A Tier 1 preliminary round (if needed) is presently scheduled for June 20, with Round 1 inked in for June 27 and Round 2 on July 4, which will feed four teams into the Super 8s the following week.
At Tier 2 level, Round 1 - for 16 teams - is scheduled for June 20, but if the provincial semi-finals are only going ahead that weekend then obviously not all the eligible Tier 2 teams would be known at that stage. (There is, of course, the probability that the Tier 2 Tailteann Cup cannot go ahead this year if, as expected, the National Leagues are voided, thereby skewing what counties would be deemed to have Division 3 and 4 status.)
Pushing the provincial finals out to weekend of July 4/5 would give space for the two rounds of Qualifiers to proceed, and the Super 8s, semi-finals and All-Ireland final could proceed as normal, albeit on a slightly later time-line, meaning, perhaps, a traditional third Sunday in September final.
JULY 4/5 RESUMPTION Chances: most probable
GIVEN the trajectory of the Coronavirus crisis it’s not unreasonable to assume that strict social distancing could be with us for quite a few weeks yet. That could mean restrictions in place, certainly with regard to mass gatherings, which would prohibit team training and matches until deep into May, and with appropriate preparation time thereafter of three to four weeks, we really could be looking at a July 4/5 date before a competitive football is kicked.
In that scenario the GAA would need to completely revise the Championship format.
Clearly, provincial championships, Qualifiers, Super 8s and All-Ireland semi-finals and the final couldn’t be facilitated from that date onwards, even if the GAA wanted to eat into most of September to complete the Championship.
In this eventuality we’re probably looking at a return to a straight knock-out competition, which could proceed in line with the provincial championship draws already made. That would take four weeks to complete the Leinster and Ulster championships (three for Munster and Connacht) with a fortnight until the All-Ireland semi-finals and three weeks until the final, which would mean an August 30 Croke Park final as originally intended.
BEYOND A JULY 4/5 RESUMPTION
ANY later start than July 4/5 - and the longer the sabbatical from collective training the longer lead-in time teams will need and want to get back up to speed - and it could very likely mean the scrapping of the provincial championships and implementing a simple 32-team (sorry New York) open draw. That could be ran over five weeks - 32, 16, quarters, semis and final - and would ensure a mid-September All-Ireland Final with a fortnight break between it and the semi-finals.
There might even be an opportunity for a dreaded ‘Champions League’ format Championship with eight groups of four, giving eight winners to go into All-Ireland quarter-finals. That would mean six rounds, which could be ran over seven weekends. A seeding system would be needed for the groups and there would, inevitably be ‘dead rubbers’ by the final round, but at least would give every team a guaranteed three games, rather than just one in a straight knockout format.