‘Sell in May and go away’? Not this year, as stocks power ahead in 3Q
LONDON (Reuters) – Investors following the stock market maxim “Sell in May and go away” will be ruing that decision this year, after emerging-market, Japanese and euro-zone equities emerged as the biggest winners in the third quarter.
US equities did less well but were still firmly into gains.
There are signs that the coming quarters may not be as robust, but for the third, the prospect of central banks keeping the stimulus taps open for longer following Britain’s shock decision in June to leave the European Union boosted investors’ risk appetite and demand for higher-yielding assets such as stocks.
The British pound extended its Brexit-driven losses against the dollar, falling more than 3%.
Brent crude oil was the worst-performing asset, down more than 7% and giving back some of the second quarter’s 30% gains. This caused commodities in general to fall almost 5%.
Looking at 23 markets across all geographical regions and asset classes shows a divergence between stocks, which were the best performers, and sterling and commodities, which were the worst.
Japanese and emerging-market equities added just under 10% in the third quarter, in dollar terms, and euro-zone equities rose just under 6%. US stocks were up 3% Investors drew comfort from the perception that markets continue to have the implicit – and increasingly explicit – backing of the world’s major central banks.
The Bank of England cut interest rates to a new record low and expanded its dormant quantitative-easing bond-buying program in response to the Brexit vote. The Federal Reserve held off US raising rates, the Bank of Japan unveiled new easy-policy plans, and expectations remained high that the European Central Bank would ease policy further.
SEARCHING FOR YIELD
Sterling fell to its lowest in more than 30 years against the dollar shortly after the Brexit vote. It staged a mini revival in August, but this week fell back below $1.30 – within sight of the July low just under $1.28.
The fall in stock-market volatility paved the way for higher equity prices. Bond-market volatility was also anchored for most of the three months to September, although bonds struggled to replicate anything like their performance in the preceding quarter.
“The third quarter was remarkably stable, which felt a little unnatural. You can’t expect that to continue,” said Lukas Daalder, the chief investment officer at Robeco Investment Solutions, which has €267 billion ($299.09b.) of assets under management.
High-yield bonds also performed well, up almost 5% over the quarter, as the increasingly difficult “hunt for yield” forced investors into the less-liquid and riskier areas of the investment universe.
The fourth quarter could be a lot more volatile thanks to a deteriorating global economic environment, sluggish corporate earnings and rising political uncertainty around the US presidential election in November.