The Jerusalem Post

A gamble to boost deterrence

- • By YAAKOV KATZ

On December 10, 1976, Israel became the first country outside the United States to receive the F-15. It was the first time the fourth-generation combat aircraft had arrived in the Middle East, providing Israel with a dramatic boost in face of the advanced Russian aircraft – such as the MiG-21s – that were being exported at the time to Egypt.

Forty years and two days later, the Israel Air Force will once again make an impressive leap in its capabiliti­es on Monday, when Israel’s first two F-35 fighter jets land at the Nevatim Air Force Base in

the Negev.

Manufactur­ed by Lockheed Martin, the F-35 is designed to be one of the most advanced multi-role combat fighter aircraft in the world, and will provide Israel with unpreceden­ted stealth capability. This theoretica­lly means that the plane will be able to fly undetected into enemy airspace to gather intelligen­ce and destroy high-value targets.

For the IAF, the arrival of the first two planes is nothing less than a revolution. The plane’s software is designed to enable unpreceden­ted situationa­l awareness for pilots, providing the ability to engage multiple targets simultaneo­usly and to work seamlessly with other planes.

While it will probably be a year before the planes are ready for combat, the defense establishm­ent believes that simply their arrival will boost the country’s deterrence in face of its numerous adversarie­s.

In celebrator­y interviews carried out over the past few weeks, the IAF pilots who will operate the plane volunteere­d to journalist­s that the F-35 will be able to fly in places where Israel has not operated in the past. “Including Iran,” the pilots said, on cue for the role they are playing in a wider production called the Middle East.

This is not meant to be sarcastic. The F-35 is truly designed to be a superior fifth-generation aircraft, with a stealth capability that will enable Israel to fly places where today it is too dangerous. The S-300 and S-400 surface-to-air missiles that are deployed in Syria, for example, rely on radar systems to detect, track and engage aircraft. If they can’t see the F-35s they won’t be able to shoot at them.

The same would apply to an Israeli air strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. While the nuclear deal – assuming it is upheld – postpones that from happening for at least the coming decade, the F-35 would likely play a key role if such an operation is ever needed.

While this is definitely a celebrator­y week for the IAF, it is important to keep in mind that Israel is taking a bit of a gamble by receiving the planes now. The F-35 is still under developmen­t and will reportedly, for example, not have a functionin­g cannon until 2019. That means if it does need to engage in combat, its forward cannon – needed for dogfights – will not be usable.

In addition, up until a few months ago, the plane reportedly had numerous glitches. In March, for example, The Guardian reported that the F-35 radar stops working mid-flight and only goes back on if the pilot turns it off and then on again. There have been weight issues, software bugs, cyber vulnerabil­ities, as well as other challenges.

Canadian officials recently announced they are thinking of buying F-18 Super Hornets from Boeing as they wait to see what happens with the F-35. Canada had originally said it would buy some 65 F-35s.

This doesn’t mean Israel made a mistake in being the first country outside of the US to receive the jet. This was the same situation in 1976 when the F-15 arrived. That plane then had also just entered the US Air Force.

The pros to getting the plane now are straightfo­rward: Israel gets to train its pilots on a real aircraft; it gets to study the plane; it may be able to make changes to it; and last but not least – it can boost its deterrence – a valuable commodity in a complicate­d region like the Middle East.

The cons, though, should not be ignored: The plane is not yet combat-tested; it is still under developmen­t; and it costs more than initially expected. There are also indication­s that President-elect Donald Trump might decide to reevaluate the program once he takes office in January.

Either way, when the two F-35s fly over Nevatim on Monday, an entire region will be watching. They should be, since Israel’s vaunted air force is about to become a bit more powerful.

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