Week 17 picks: Who locks up final playoff spots?
GAME OF THE WEEK PACKERS (9-6) AT LIONS (9-6)
(Playoff impact: Extremely high. It’s winner-take-all for the NFC North title, and loser would also qualify for playoffs if Redskins lost earlier in day. If Redskins won, this game would be allor-nothing for playoff spot.) This was the idea, what the NFL was envisioning in ending its regular season with all division games: a winner-take-all finale. And bonus points that it’s in prime time as the last game before the playoffs. Gee Bees have the momentum of five consecutive wins and the hottest QB in the league in Aaron Rodgers. Motown has won its past six home games, but Matthew Stafford is diminished by that injured middle finger. Lions last won division title in 1993, and my dough is on Mr. Rodgers to keep it that way.
UPSET OF THE WEEK CHIEFS (11-4) AT CHARGERS (5-10)
(Playoff impact: Medium. Chiefs already are in but can clinch division title and first-round bye with win and loss by Raiders. Chargers are out.) “AAAWWWK!” croons the Upset Bird. “Farewell, San Dieaawwk!” The holidays must bring out the sentimentality in me. I see the Chargers – yes, I know they lost to the winless Browns last week! – mustering a big finish in what could be the franchise’s final game in SD before Bolting to LA. Also, Philip Rivers has a 13-9 career record vs Chiefs, whose 10-game division win streak gotta end sooner or later, right? “Yes, as George Harrison put it in 1970, all things must pass,” nods U-Bird in agreement. “All things must paaawwwk!”
DOG OF THE WEEK BILLS (7-8) AT JETS (4-11)
(Playoff impact: Zero. Both out.) Lots of competition for the season-finale Dog collar, as one of six games with no playoff team. Tiebreaker? The chance to make fun of two of Miami’s rivals! Buffs canned Rex Ryan after club’s 17th consecutive season out of playoffs. Planes are going nowhere with zero solution at quarterback. Then again, Bills are flailing there, too, ready to move on from Tyrod Taylor and starting E.J. Manuel here. He’s enough to beat the sad Jets.
PATRIOTS (13-2) AT DOLPHINS (10-5)
(Playoff impact: Medium. Both teams are in, but Patriots can clinch home-field throughout with win or Raiders loss, and Dolphins would move up to more favorable No. 5 seed with win if Chiefs lose.) Many readers have been kind enough to point out that I picked Dolphins to lose the past two games, and was wrong both times. Well, as a public service, I’m picking them to lose again. You’re welcome! But this time I mean it. Pats beat Miami early in season with Jimmy Garoppolo. Now I’m supposed to think they won’t with Tom Brady? Yeah, I know, Brady has lost his past three starts in Miami. This I also know: New England’s defense has not allowed a touchdown in more than nine quarters. It is the balance and completeness at Bill Belichick’s command that makes Pats the Super Bowl favorite, not just Brady. Plus, Jay Ajayi has been limited this week by a sore shoulder. If you’re looking at this game as the Litmus test for whether Miami finally has caught up to its AFC East nemesis, the answer is, “Not yet.”
RAVENS (8-7) AT BENGALS (5-9-1)
(Playoff impact: Zero. Both out.) I know Baltimore has lost its past four trips to Paul Brown Stadium, but Ravens have been the better team this season and have publicly emphasized how important it is to them to win and finish above .500. Crows playing starters, whereas ‘Gals are shutting down several.
TEXANS (9-6) AT TITANS (8-7)
(Playoff impact: Low. Texans have already clinched division and are locked in as No. 4 seed. Titans are out.) It’s Tom Savage vs Matt Cassel, one replacing the benched Brock Osweiler, the other in for the injured Marcus Mariota. That could shift emphasis to the ground game, and hobbled Lamar Miller seemed likely late in week to sit this one out. Texans just aren’t that good, which is why Dolphins would love to get the 5-seed and open playoffs in Houston, not Pittsburgh.
PANTHERS (6-9) AT BUCCANEERS (8-7)
(Playoff impact: Next to zero. Panthers are out. Buccaneers are mathematically alive but requiring an all-but-impossibly byzantine parade of six results all falling exactly right.) Tampa suspended RB Doug Martin over PEDs, but still like Jameis Winston at home over disappointing Panthers, who haven’t been very good on road. Cam Newton has 107 rating in eight career meetings and will keep it close.
JAGUARS (3-12) AT COLTS (7-8)
(Playoff impact: Zero. Both out.) Sadness all around here as Jags’ playoff drought since 2007 continues, and Colts have missed consecutive seasons for first time since 1997-98. Frank Gore needs 36 yards to become oldest back to 1,000 (at age 33) since John Riggins in 1984. And T.Y. Hilton seeks to be first Colt to lead NFL in receiving yards since UM’s Reggie Wayne in ‘07.
BEARS (3-12) AT VIKINGS (7-8)
(Playoff impact: Zero. Both out.) Another of Week 17’s Sadness Bowls as Bears try to avert franchise’s worst season since 1978 advent of 16-game schedules and Vikes try to forget they began this season 5-0. Sam Bradford’s been pretty good at home and Matt Barkley has thrown eight picks in past two games. But still like a Chitown cover.
COWBOYS (13-2) AT EAGLES (6-9)
(Playoff impact: Low. Cowboys already have clinched home-field throughout NFC playoffs. Eagles are out.) Betting line is shaped by an assumption Dallas, with nothing to gain, might play starters very little. (Tony Romo, anyone?) But, what exactly does Philly have to play for? Carson Wentz has 11 interceptions in his past eight games. And at least ‘Boys have the incentive of wishing to enter the postseason with a tailwind, not off a loss.
BROWNS (1-14) AT STEELERS (10-5)
(Playoff impact: Low. Steelers already have won division and are locked in as No. 3 seed. Browns were mathematically eliminated in 1994.) What little drama this game held evaporated when Cleveland had the temerity to win last week. Pittsburgh – Miami’s likely playoff-opening opponent – has beaten the Earthtones 12 games in a row at home, and the idea that Cody Kessler might outscore Ben Roethlisberger is akin to liking me in a game of one-on-one with LeBron.
SAINTS (7-8) AT FALCONS (10-5)
(Playoff impact: Medium. Falcons are in but can clinch first-round bye with win or if Seattle and Detroit both lose. Saints are out.) This is the last Falcons game at the Georgia Dome after 25 years, which should give the home team a palpable emotional lift. That shapes this pick, along with the fact Atlanta is a much better team. Over/under on combined Drew Brees/ Matt Ryan passing yards gotta be, what, 750?
GIANTS (10-5) AT REDSKINS (8-6-1)
(Playoff impact: High. Giants already are in as No. 5 seed, but it’s all-or-nothing for Redskins, who are out with a loss but will qualify by winning as long as the Green Bay-Detroit game does not end in a tie.) NYG insists its starters will play, but the incentive here rests hugely with Washington, along with the home field, of course. Bonus: We get another chapter of Odell Beckham vs Josh Norman.
CARDINALS (6-8-1) AT RAMS (4-11)
(Playoff impact: Zero. Both out.) Another in our series of Sad Bowls. Arizona, thinking Super Bowl after last year’s 13-3, is one of NFL’s biggest busts. And the Rammed fizzled in return to LA, dragged down by putrid offense. Rammed have won past two over Cacti, but like the Cardbirds big here.
RAIDERS (12-3) AT BRONCOS (8-7)
(Playoff impact: Medium. Raiders are in but can clinch division title and first-round bye with win or if Chiefs lose, and can clinch home-field throughout playoffs with win if Patriots lose. Broncos are out.) When you’re defending Super Bowl champs and you miss playoffs, denying your division rival to end the season is a modicum of consolation, at least. Backup Matt McGloin is OK, but losing QB Derek Carr to a broken leg is a huge blow to Raiders, bigger than Miami losing Ryan Tannehill. That and venue steer this pick.
SEAHAWKS (9-5-1) AT 49ERS (2-13)
(Playoff impact: Medium. Seahawks already are in but can clinch first-round bye with win and loss by Falcons.) Seabirds have won six in a row over Niners, including 37-18 in September, holding Frans to 44 total points in past five meetings. “Farewell, Chip Kelly,” says the NFL. “Been nice to know ya.”
(Miami Herald/TNS)