Quarterbacks loom large in playoff picture
The NFL playoffs will begin Saturday at NRG Stadium. They will end 29 days later at the same location for Super Bowl LI.
Whether the Texans or Raiders, who meet again Saturday in an AFC wild-card playoff, will make it back for the big one is a long shot because of the quarterback woes with both teams.
It’s no surprise then that the AFC teams with the most experienced quarterbacks are the ones favored to be here next month. You know, Tom Brady and the Patriots, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers – who have won multiple Super Bowls – and even Alex Smith and the red-hot Chiefs.
The NFC picture is somewhat similar – Eli Manning of the Giants, Aaron Rodgers of the Packers and Russell Wilson of the Seahawks have won Super Bowls – but the real intrigue surrounds a rookie. Dak Prescott led the Cowboys to the No. 1 seed, and they are the favorites to make the trip down I-45 for the Super Bowl.
An early look at the matchups and the teams that could be here next month:
AFC
1. New England (14-2): Quarterback Tom Brady sat out the first four weeks because of his suspension for his role (or attitude with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell) in the controversy over properly inflated footballs in the Patriots’ AFC title game victory over the Colts two seasons ago. The Patriots went 3-1 without Captain Tom and lost only to Seattle with him. The Patriots have lost super specimen tight end Rob Gronkowski to injury, but Martellus Bennett has filled in nicely, and Bill Belichick has surrounded Brady with the right mix of receivers and backs to keep the offense humming. Barring a Dolphins win over the WITH SIX Super Bowl rings between them, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (left) and Pittsburgh Steelers signalcaller Ben Roethlisberger are sure to make an impact over the next month. Steelers, the Patriots would host the Texans-Raiders winner in the divisional round.
2. Kansas City (12-4): The Chiefs beat the Raiders twice to get the AFC West title. Alex Smith and tight end Travis Kelce kept the offense afloat early, and do-it-all receiver/runner/returner Tyreek Hill added some flash in the final weeks to make the loss of running back Jamaal Charles an afterthought. Linebacker Justin Houston played only five games, and the defense lost Derrick Johnson three weeks ago. But nothing seems to have slowed the playoff march, which didn’t seem too likely after a Week 2 loss to the Texans. The Chiefs would host the Steelers (if they beat the Dolphins) in the divisional round.
3. Pittsburgh (11-5): It seems it’s all about offense in the Steel City these days. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, receiver Antonio Brown and running back Le’veon Bell give Mike Tomlin plenty of weapons. The Steelers did lose to the Dolphins in Week 6 to start a four-game losing streak as they couldn’t stop running back Jay Ajayi (202 yards). The Steelers have won seven in a row since, but two of those were against the Browns, and only the New York Giants had a winning record. But Roethlisberger’s winning drive two weeks ago to beat the Ravens was enough to show it’s hard to count out the Steelers.
4. Houston (9-7): The Texans get the fourth seed thanks to winning the AFC South despite the fewest wins of any of the AFC playoff teams. A defense that played mostly without J.J. Watt yet wound up No. 1 in the NFL has covered up for most of the inconsistencies on offense (you know, Brock Osweiler, Tom Savage, an inconsistent line, etc.). That defense, paced by Jadeveon Clowney, is likely enough to beat the Raiders in the wild-card round. Enough to get the Texans back here to host the Super Bowl? Well, let’s just say the road is hard.
5. Oakland (12-4): The Raiders looked like a lock for the AFC West and the No. 2 seed until Derek Carr broke his leg last week. An injury to his replacement, Matt McGloin, on Sunday further hurt Oakland’s chances.
6. Miami (10-6): The Dolphins lost QB Ryan Tannehill (knee) on December 11 and followed Matt Moore and running back Jay Ajayi to the playoffs. There were whispers Tannehill might be back this week, but it’s likely not enough.
NFC
1. Dallas (13-3): Rookie QB Dak Prescott and rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott have the Cowboys talking about their own H-Town takeover come February. The offensive line is the best in the league. The defense doesn’t force a lot of turnovers, which could be a factor.
2. Atlanta (11-5): Matt Ryan has gotten himself into the MVP discussion for leading the league’s highest-scoring offense, but he’s had plenty of help with receiver Julio Jones and running back Devonta Freeman. As with the Cowboys, the only questions are on defense.
3. Seattle (10-5-1): The Seahawks have been great at home but will likely host only one playoff game. Then it’s on the road for Russell Wilson and his running back of the week. The defense misses Earl Thomas.
4. Green Bay (10-6): Aaron Rodgers hasn’t had a running game all season, but he’s had Jordy Nelson, which has been enough. The defense has improved over a six-game winning streak, and it’s hard to bet against the Packers’ experience in the postseason.
5. NY Giants (11-5): Eli Manning won both his Super Bowls with the Giants as a wild card, but he’s been inconsistent. Still, any team with his arm and Odell Beckham Jr. is a threat. And defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo can still dial it up.
6. Detroit (9-7): It’s been all Matt Stafford and some late-game magic for the Lions, who faded a bit down the stretch.
However it turns out, all favorites or an upset or two along the way, NRG Stadium is likely in for a fun show on February 5.
(Houston Chronicle/TNS)