Bold projections for the Final Four
Each Final Four team offers a different story.
South Carolina, which hadn’t won an NCAA tournament game since 1973, is the most unexpected team playing in Glendale, Arizona. The Gamecocks stunned Duke, Baylor and Florida to get to their first Final Four. Also in its first Final Four is little engine that could-turned No. 1 seed Gonzaga, which was a few possessions away from reaching the Final Four as a Cinderella in 1999 and finally broke through as a top dog this year.
Then there’s another team that so many counted out after one of its best player’s, Chris Boucher, was lost for the season with an ACL injury. But Oregon has played as well as any team in the tournament and silenced – literally – two of the hottest teams in Michigan and Kansas. And, of course, North Carolina, on a redemption quest since losing in the national title game last year on a buzzer-beater by Villanova’s Kris Jenkins. To say the Tar Heels have unfinished business would be an understatement.
Of course, the beauty of March Madness is that you likely only have one team (ahem, North Carolina) still alive in your bracket and most of your picks are wastebasket material like some of USA TODAY Sports’ experts. That doesn’t mean the surprises are over, though. Five days from tip-off, here are four predictions you wouldn’t expect in the Final Four.
1. A West Coast final
After Oregon unexpectedly throttled Kansas, a team that was shooting lights out and beating opponents by 30, Tyler Dorsey – who has earned the nickname “Mr. March – had a message for America: “They sleep on the West Coast. Wake ’em up!”
Consider the nation “woke” to Oregon and Gonzaga as title contenders following impressive Final Four runs. In the Sweet 16, the story line was how the Big Ten proved doubters wrong. In the Elite Eight, how the SEC had a surprise three teams. Now, it’s the West Coast. If one of them wins a championship, it would be the first for a true West Coast team since UCLA in 1995 (Arizona won in 1997).
So why not an all-West Coast championship game between the Bulldogs and Ducks? Gonzaga is favored against South Carolina, but Oregon is an underdog against North Carolina. The key will be for coach Dana Altman to use an array of defenses like he did against Michigan and Kansas. And as much as the loss of Boucher could be fully felt against a UNC team that led the nation in rebounding, Jordan Bell (11 points, 13 boards and eight blocks against Kansas) has been a key. That and Dillon Brooks and Tyler Dorsey have been matchup nightmares. If they are on their A-game against the Tar Heels, there’s no reason to count them out.
2. Gonzaga wins it all
In a rock fight against fourth-seeded West Virginia, Gonzaga showed it had the defensive fortitude to play championship basketball. Against Xavier, the offense finally arrived. Mark Few’s team has lost but once – to BYU in the regular season – and the reason it won 36 games is because it is exceptional on defense and has plenty of offensive weapons.
Point guard Nigel Williams-Goss and 7-footer Przemek Karnowski key the insideout game, but it’s the other players such as freshman 7-footer Zach Collins and sophomore guard Josh Perkins who help this team go.
For the naysayers out there who are still skeptical of Gonzaga, they’ll point to an easier path to the Final Four than most, considering the Bulldogs played a No. 16 seed, No. 8 seed and No. 11 seed to get there. But Gonzaga is used to proving doubters wrong, and it seems as though the skepticism has only refueled the mid-major’s identity. An underdog No. 1 seed? The Bulldogs shouldn’t be, but they’re playing like it in March.
3. Gamecocks’ Sindarius Thornwell comes back down to earth
Thornwell has been the best player in this year’s tournament, averaging 26 points and 7.5 rebounds and carrying South Carolina to the Final Four. But Thornwell could be this year’s Buddy Hield. After scoring 38 points in the Elite Eight last year, the Oklahoma star had nine points on 4-for-12 shooting in a 44-point loss to Villanova in the Final Four. Don’t expect a similar beatdown against Gonzaga. The Gamecocks’ defense will keep them in the game. Thornwell imposed his will on teams Duke, Baylor and Florida, but Gonzaga will use a collective defensive effort to cool down the Big Dance’s biggest star.
4. An unsung hero will be the Most Outstanding Player
Among the players who have won the Most Outstanding Player Award over the years, Duke’s Tyus Jones (2015) and Louisville’s Luke Hancock (2013) are two examples of players who were key players on their teams but far from the top catalysts heading into the Final Four. Here are four players who could become unsung heroes.
North Carolina’s Luke Maye: Maye, a 6-8 sophomore reserve who averages 5.5 points a game had 17 points against Kentucky, including the game-winning bucket. Before that, he had 16 points and 12 rebounds against Butler.
Oregon’s Jordan Bell: Bell has been instrumental in getting Oregon to the Final Four after the Ducks lost Boucher to injury. Although it will be hard to one-up his performance against Kansas, which included eight game-changing blocks, his play against UNC will be crucial.
Gonzaga’s Johnathan Williams: The Missouri transfer was huge in the win against Xavier. He had 19 points, eight rebounds and three blocks. At 6-9, the versatile forward presents matchup problems with his range and ability to stretch the floor.