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As the NFL enters Thanksgiving week, several division leaders are starting to separate themselves from the pack. But the playoff picture is far from resolved.
Here are four overreactions from Week 11 we’re pushing back on:
The Rams are coming down to Earth after hot start
The Rams fell flat in their 24-7 road loss to the NFC North-leading Vikings. A chance to send a message to the rest of the league was lost, but Los Angeles can still use this as a teaching moment.
The Rams are extremely young on both their roster and coaching staff. A setback like this, in a hostile, playoff-like atmosphere can set expectations for the rest of the season and into the postseason.
That the team was undone largely by its own miscues – mostly notably rookie receiver Cooper Kupp’s fumble at the 1-yard line and third-down drop – is a reminder of how sharp Sean McVay’s group has to be to in order to keep up with contenders.
That lesson will continue to come into play during a stretch that ranks as the league’s second-toughest remaining schedule, with games remaining against the Saints, Eagles, and Seahawks. But the Rams still look like the front-runner in the NFC West.
The Cowboys are out of the NFC playoff chase
Dallas’ hopes might be on life support, but it’s too early to call anything.
Sunday night’s blowout against the Eagles further entrenched Philadelphia (9-1) atop the NFC East and bolstered the team’s resume as a Super Bowl contender.
Injuries to left tackle Tyron Smith (back, groin) and linebacker Sean Lee (hamstring), as well as the suspension of running back Ezekiel Elliott, have loomed large during Dallas’ two-game skid.
But the Cowboys (5-5) likely weren’t going to compete for the division crown before those losses, anyway.
Between the 8-2 Saints and 7-3 Panthers, the NFC South will likely claim one of the two wild-card spots. So the Cowboys are likely playing for the sixth and final spot in the postseason, currently held by the Seattle Seahawks (6-3).
The margin of error, for the Cowboys, is drastically slim.
Both conferences are wide open
While the Eagles look balanced and complete, the NFC still has other teams – including the Saints, Vikings, and maybe even the Rams and Seahawks – that can compete against them. The AFC is a different story. More and more, this is looking like a two-team race. The Steelers (8-2) dominated the Titans on Thursday night after a long-awaited offensive breakout. The Patriots (8-2) are improving with each passing week, their defense again shutting opponents down.
Led by the NFL’s top-ranked defense, the Jaguars (7-3) have been a surprise. But it’s hard to imagine Blake Bortles can carry them against contenders. Beyond them, the Chiefs (6-4) are in free fall, and Tennessee (6-4) is just too inconsistent to be counted on in January.
After meeting in last season’s AFC Championship Game, Pittsburgh and New England look to be on a crash course for a rematch.
The biggest remaining question may only be where that game would be played. A Week 15 showdown between both squads in Pittsburgh could be the deciding factor.
The Broncos have addressed their biggest issue on offense
Denver fired offensive coordinator Mike McCoy on Monday morning after the Broncos lost to the Bengals in a lifeless showing that extended the team’s losing streak to six.
While grumbling about play calling and a complex playbook likely did have an impact in Denver’s offensive ineptitude, heaping all of the blame on McCoy’s shoulders is both unfair and misguided.
Denver (3-7) is still searching for an answer at quarterback in the post-Peyton Manning era. Brock Osweiler – with another debilitating turnover in the end zone – is clearly not the answer. Trevor Siemian, who opened the season as the starter, was a healthy scratch. And while Paxton Lynch has been injured during the regular season, the 2016 first-round pick’s inability to beat out Siemian for the starter’s gig showed how much he still has to improve.
Meanwhile, the Broncos rank second in the NFL with 23 giveaways.
Prior to the Bengals loss, Broncos general manager John Elway said his team “got a little bit soft.”
Some players bristled, as cornerback Chris Harris said, “Ain’t nothing soft in my bones.”
If Elway thinks Denver is soft, some of that stems from his own roster decisions. Here’s how the NFL playoff picture looks after Monday night’s game between the Falcons and Seahawks:
NFC
1. Philadelphia Eagles (9-1): NFC East leader. They’ve essentially wrapped up the division after embarrassing the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night. Philly now has a four-game bulge with six left to play and is 4-0 against NFC East foes.
2. Minnesota Vikings (8-2): NFC North leader. Sunday’s victory over the Rams was huge literally and figuratively as the Vikes move forward with a head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over both LA and New Orleans.
3. New Orleans Saints (8-2): NFC South leader. They extended their winning streak to eight by the slimmest of margins. Next week’s game against the Rams in Los Angeles could have weighty seeding ramifications for both teams.
4. Los Angeles Rams (7-3): NFC West leader. One of the league’s promising young teams just got a huge wake-up call against quality opposition.
5. Carolina Panthers (7-3): Wild card No. 1. Can’t overlook the Jets this week if they want Week 13’s game at New Orleans to potentially be for NFC South lead.
6. Atlanta Falcons (6-4): Wild card No. 2. Monday night’s win over the Seahawks coupled with a defeat of the Lions in Week 3 puts the defending NFC champs back into the field for now.
AFC
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2): AFC North leader. Their 6-1 conference record currently confers the tie-breaking edge, but everyone expects the Steelers and Patriots to settle the AFC’s battle for home-field advantage on the field in Week 15.
2. New England Patriots (8-2): AFC East leader. They’re cruising, as usual at this point of the season. They come home next week to host the Dolphins, then have to navigate three more consecutive road games, culminating with that December 17 date at Pittsburgh.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3): AFC South leader. Winners of three straight, the Jags finally seem to be overcoming their inconsistency.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (6-4): AFC West leader. Ugly loss Sunday to a brutal Giants team. But the Chiefs are fortunate to be in a shockingly terrible division, maintaining a two-game edge despite dropping four of five.
5. Tennessee Titans (6-4): Wild card No. 1. Their next four are against sub.500 teams, so they’re not out of the AFC South race by any stretch.
6. Baltimore Ravens (5-5): Wild card No. 2. And you thought this team was nevermore. A half-game edge in AFC games gives them this spot over Buffalo for now. But given the way the spiraling Bills are playing and Baltimore’s generally soft schedule, advantage Ravens. However it’s worth noting several 4-6 teams (Jets, Dolphins, Bengals, Texans, Raiders, Chargers) are a mini hot streak away from entering the fray. (USA Today/TNS)