What we know and don’t know

Protests have swept Iran in the last few days, leading to clashes with security forces and the first protester deaths on December 30. Videos have emerged showing protesters in the streets, which the government has sought to put down by warning against “illegal gatherings.” The US government has released statements indicating support for the protesters. After 72 hours, here is what we know so far:

When did the protests start? They began in earnest on Thursday, December 28, in a series of cities across the heartland of Iran. They spread on Friday to at least a dozen cities and continued on Saturday, reaching Tehran.

Where are the protests? They have taken place across the country, from such far eastern border cities as Mashhad, to Rasht on the

Caspian Sea. By the second day, they had spread to at least a dozen cities including Isfahan, Qom, Qzvin, Sari, Kermanshah, Ahvaz, Hamedan, Shahrud, Nowshahr, and Kashmar. These encompass a diverse group of cities, including those known for religious devotion such as Qom. They include areas with large numbers of minorities, such as Kurds in Kermanshah and Arabs in Ahvaz, as well as those in the Persian heartland. On Saturday night and Sunday, the protests also spread to Bandar Abbas on the southern coast and to the Kurdish region’s cities of Baneh and Sanandaj.

How were they organized? Iran’s regime has alleged that social media, especially the Telegram Messenger messaging service, have been used to spread the protests. The minister of information and communications technology asked the site to shut down accounts that are being used to inflame the people. A Telegram channel named “Amadnews” was suspended as a result.

What are the protests saying? A variety of chants have been heard on videos of the protests. These include: “Death to the dictator,” which conjures up images of the 2009 protests when the green-clad supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi took to the streets in September of that year; they have also called on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to step down; they have spoken out against economic woes and inflation, with one man saying that the protesters come from a broad spectrum of society; and they speak about students graduating without a stable future. PROTESTERS HAVE also said that many who took to the streets are from the lower classes, which would be in contrast to some of the 2009 protests. The protesters have also targeted government involvement in Syria, calling on the government to “leave Syria, think about us,” and also condemned the government’s obsession with supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon. “Not Gaza, not Lebanon, my life for Iran,” they have said. Videos show protesters ripping down posters of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, who is in charge of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp’s operations abroad. They have also removed posters of the Ayatollah. At Tehran University, they condemned the “oppressive” government, with protesters on December 30, chanting “independence, freedom, Iranian Republic,” a slight twist on the 1979 motto that called for an “Islamic Republic.”

What are leaders saying? US President Donald Trump tweeted on December 30: “Many reports of peaceful protests by Iranian citizens fed up with regime’s corruption and its squandering of the nation’s wealth.” He said the world was watching. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has said it will “not allow the country to be hurt.” Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and Ayatollah Khamenei have been silent so far. Former Swedish Prime Minister and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations Carl Bildt wrote on December 29: “There is no doubt that protests are spreading in Iran. Might have been started by hardliners to undermine [President Hassan Rouhani] but have no clearly changed character. So far soft regime response, but highly likely forces inside it calling for brutal methods.” Other European voices such as French President Emmanuel Macron had not released statements by Sunday afternoon. UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson tweeted that he was “watching events in Iran with concern. Vital that citizens should have the right to demonstrate peacefully.”

How has Iran’s regime responded? On Saturday, tens of thousands of pro-regime supporters were called out on the streets to stage counter-protests. At the same time, security forces in Tehran beat students who attended a rally at Tehran University. According to the Center for Human Rights in Iran, the government has made it difficult for locals to access Internet servers outside Iran. Locals predict this means that in the coming days there will be fewer videos from protests as Iranians will not be able to send them abroad.

In the city of Dorud in the province of Lorestan, several protesters were reported killed. Riot police have been sent against protesters in Rasht. In Mashhad on December 28, police responded with live fire. As of December 30, the crackdown had not yet become widespread and images of the Basij militia being sent in to attack protesters, which happened in 2009, have not appeared. On Sunday, Iran canceled rail service and suspended school while it continued its crackdown on social media and the Internet to stem the protests. The regime has accused “foreign” elements of being behind the disturbances and claimed that protester deaths were also caused by enemies of the state. WOMEN AS a symbol of the protest: One of the symbols of the 2009 protests was the death of Neda Agha-Soltan, a philosophy student who was shot in Tehran in June 2009. During the 2017 protests, one of the symbols has been a woman waving a white scarf while she refuses to don the head-covering or hijab that is mandatory in the Islamic Republic. That woman was allegedly arrested on December 28.

Protests fuel political infighting in the US: The protests have fueled a debate in the US about the Iran nuclear deal and criticism of the Obama administration for not doing more in 2009. Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, wrote: “Civil unrest in Iran offers Trump opportunity to chart different path than Obama.” US Sen. Ted Cruz has urged the Trump administration “to do everything possible to support these courageous protesters.” Sen. John McCain tweeted Saturday: “For too long, the Iranian people have been oppressed by their government.” Like many Republican senators, McCain argues that the US must stand with the protesters. The support for Iranian protests crosses party lines. “The Iranian people, especially the young, are protesting for the freedom and future they deserve,” tweeted Hillary Clinton.

What does it mean for the Middle East? Iran has been blamed for spreading instability in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen through its Shi’ite militia proxies. Many groups and countries in the region have an interest in encouraging the protests. There are also close allies of Iran, such as Qatar, that want to encourage the regime to crack down. Major protests in Iran could encourage protests in other countries, especially if it seems protesters have succeeded in seizing state property. For instance, journalist Julian Ropcke claimed that on December 30, protesters “took over the town of Kashan” including the police station. There will be calls for the US and other powers to do more to aid the protesters, but there will also be hesitation, with claims that any aid could backfire and be seen as advocating “regime change.”

Beyond hardliners and moderates: The protests have revealed that there is a large amount of frustration in Iran that goes beyond the simplistic narrative of “hardliners” and “moderates,” through which many western analysts like to see Iran. Unlike during the 2009 protests, where the protesters were largely seen as political partisans of the “moderates,” so far, these seem leaderless and uncolored by political overtones. That may change, but the protests have revealed the economic issues and widespread discontent with the Islamist regime among supporters across a wide spectrum of the population. •