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Here is a breakdown of the two Saturday Divisional Round duels:
ATLANTA FALCONS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
When: Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET Where: Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field Line: Falcons by 3
Three things to know
1. The defenses never rest: Atlanta has allowed just 16.3 points per game over its last six, clamping down on some of the league’s best offenses (New Orleans, Carolina, and the LA Rams among them). It’s a speedy, athletic group that borrows many of the concepts head coach Dan Quinn used in Seattle and will typically load the box with eight players and dare fill-in Eagles QB Nick Foles to beat it.
The Eagles defense will also have to rise to the occasion given the offense’s struggles without injured QB Carson Wentz. Philadelphia finished the season ranked fourth in both points and yards allowed, but the performances have been uneven lately. The Eagles surrendered just 16 points in their last two games yet were burned for 88 in the previous three.
2. Questionable QBs: Matt Ryan grew up just outside of Philadelphia, so he knows what kind of crowd awaits him. And maybe he’ll appreciate the fact he’s had to regenerate a thick skin a year removed from his MVP campaign.
Ryan’s been fine in 2017, his 64.7% completion rate and 91.4 QB rating pretty much in line with his career norms. Of course, that’s the problem. His 2016 resume now seems like a career season rather than an indicator he’d made the leap from good to elite after his TD pass total dropped by nearly half (38 to 20) and his INTs nearly doubled (from seven to 12). Ryan hasn’t had one three-TD game this season, has seemed generally out of sync with his teammates and new OC Steve Sarkisian.
Foles wishes he had Ryan’s problems. He threw four TDs in his first start after Wentz went down, but it came against the Giants in Week 15 and now appears to be fool’s gold. Foles has struggled since (47% completion rate, 48.2 QB rating), and the Eagles offense has managed just 16 points in the past nine quarters.
3. Take it on the run baby: Current weather models suggest the East Coast will have emerged from Arctic conditions for the opener of the divisional round. Fortunately, Atlanta’s tailback tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman should thrive in any environment. The duo helped wear down the Rams and could tax even the Eagles’ rotating fleet of linemen. Freeman, who gives maximum effort on every play, is a joy to watch. The Eagles would surely prefer to rely on their trio of LeGarrette Blount, Jay Ajayi and Corey Clement, who aren’t as explosive as their Atlanta counterparts but can certainly milk a clock and occasionally tear off chunks of yardage if Foles can keep the Falcons defense honest.
TENNESSEE TITANS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
When: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET Where: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts
Line: Patriots by 14
Three things to know
1. Patriot nay? This game almost feels like a sidebar given the drama that’s enveloped New England in the wake of ESPN’s explosive report alleging dysfunction among owner Robert Kraft, head coach Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady in recent months. Spygate didn’t keep the Patriots from going 16-0 in the regular season or reaching the Super Bowl in 2007, and Deflategate didn’t derail their bid for a fourth championship during the 2014 playoffs (or a fifth in 2016 when Brady finally served his four-game suspension). Maybe New England now has its latest rallying cry, but this feels a bit different giving the divisive forces are allegedly internal this time around.
2. Brady hunch: The ESPN story also floated the notion that Brady’s long-awaited decline may have begun. The 40-year-old’s case as the greatest quarterback in NFL history is essentially airtight at this point. But he didn’t look like himself in December, when his less-than-stellar play (6 TDs, 5 INTs, 81.6 QB rating) may have cost him a third league MVP award.
However Brady’s “struggles” have coincided with a revitalized New England ground game, which exceeded 190 yards in three of the past six games (all three were wins). Dion Lewis, the Patriots’ healthiest back at the moment, has been especially good lately. He’s accumulated 366 yards and five TDs from scrimmage in the last three games while also handling kickoffs. Tennessee was a prohibitive underdog against the Chiefs, and the Patriots are two-TD favorites. And who can argue given New England’s 9-1 record in divisional games at Gillette Stadium?
Still, the Titans possess some elements that could make this a game. Derrick Morgan, Brian Orakpo, Jurrell Casey and Erik Walden are largely unheralded, yet form a quartet of pass rushers that could generate the type of pocket pressure that’s key to beating Brady. RB Derrick Henry and a mauling offensive line could crack a Patriots defense that allowed more yards than all but three teams in 2017. Mobile quarterbacks like Alex Smith and Cam Newton were hugely responsible for two of New England’s three losses this season. Marcus Mariota fits that mold, too, but he and the Titans can’t afford to fall into a deficit that forces them to stray from a balanced approach.