Pats look to extend dynasty
Here is a breakdown of Sunday’s two Conference Championship duels:
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
When: Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET Where: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Line: Patriots by 9 Injuries: The right ankle of Jags rookie RB Leonard Fournette will likely be the topic of much scrutiny. He was able to return Sunday against the Steelers and tack on a third TD run, but it remains to be seen how he’ll respond this week. The Patriots got James White back Saturday, yet fellow RBs Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee remain down with knee injuries.
Still, no need to rush them back after New England posted 101 yards on the ground in the divisional round. WR Chris Hogan played for just the second time since Week 8 and scored a TD.
Three things to know
1. Mismatch? Despite another impressive win in Pittsburgh, good luck finding anyone picking the Jags this time. One of four NFL franchises to never reach a Super Bowl, Jacksonville clearly does not have history on its side. And there’s this: The Patriots are 10-1 in the playoffs against AFC South teams during the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era and 10-0 at Gillette Stadium. (The lone loss was to Peyton Manning and the Colts at the RCA Dome in the 2006 AFC Championship Game.)
New England, entering its seventh consecutive AFC title game, is 5-1 at Gillette Stadium with a Super Bowl berth on the line, the defeat occurring against the Ravens during the 2012 postseason. More recently, the Pats are riding a seven-game playoff win streak at home and cruising in most cases, the average margin of victory 18.3 points.
2. Sacksonville: The Jaguars’ topranked pass defense has been a major component of their success. Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye are the league’s top corner tandem, and the four-man front rarely needs help generating pressure (55 sacks this season). Airtight coverage and a foreboding rush also helped create 33 takeaways in the regular season, second most in the league. The Steelers fell prey Sunday, most notably on a Ben Roethlisberger fumble that was returned 50 yards for a Jags TD.
But will this work against New England? Yes, Brady is at his most vulnerable when the pocket quickly closes around him. However he’s become increasingly reliant on the short passing game and deftly uses it to his advantage. Of his 35 completions Saturday, 20 went to his running backs or tight ends, and 11 others went to slot man Danny Amendola.
Brady wasn’t sacked once in 53 dropbacks, and New England never turned the ball over – and hasn’t had a negative differential during that seven-game home playoff win streak. It could be a perfect antidote against the Jags, especially if Ramsey and Bouye are unable to affect the game while being forced to cover deep threat WRs Brandin Cooks and Hogan.
3. Grounded: Brady is always a focal point, but the Patriots continue to steadily feed RB Dion Lewis, who has 507 yards from scrimmage over the past four games, all New England victories. In fact, the Patriots are 8-0 when he exceeds 100 rushing/receiving yards.
However Lewis isn’t nearly as vital as Fournette is to Jacksonville, the NFL’s top-ranked rushing team.
The Jags are 5-1 this season when their stud rookie runs for 100 yards or more, including Sunday’s gutsy performance at Heinz Field. But the Jaguars lost four of five this season when they couldn’t muster 100 yards collectively, largely because inconsistent QB Blake Bortles and a relatively inexperienced receiving corps are not well equipped to carry the mail.
Yet they may have to against a New England defense that’s held its last three opponents to an average of 63 yards on the ground and just shut down Derrick Henry, a big back whose game resembles Fournette’s.