Bracket-busting weekend sets up suprising Sweet 16 field
Here is a recap of the key takeaways following Sunday’s eight second-round NCAA Tournament contests:
1. Six national title favorite
picks are done dancing: Goodbye, blue bloods. Sunday featured no shortage of upsets, as No. 11 seed Syracuse stunned No. 3 Michigan State (a trendy Final Four pick), Texas A&M obliterated North Carolina (the defending national champion), Nevada stormed back from 22 down to clip Cincinnati (another trendy Final Four pick) and Florida State knocked out No. 1 seed Xavier — making it just the fourth time since 1985 that two No. 1s were dispatched in the first two rounds.
Just like that, four national title contenders – because that’s what the Spartans, Tar Heels, Bearcats and Musketeers were considered on Selection Sunday – are gone before the second weekend. Then factor in Virginia’s historic upset loss to UMBC and Arizona’s staggering upset loss to Buffalo, and six legitimate teams that were in the mix to cut down the nets will be watching the rest of the Dance from home.
2. Seriously, who saw Florida State, Syracuse and Texas A&M coming? These head-scratching upsets took elite teams not playing their best basketball, but they also took impressive efforts by teams we didn’t expect to be here. The most surprising is easily Syracuse, a bubble team that barely squeaked into the field of 68 as a No. 11 seed. The Orange’s 2-3 zone is tough, but this team has far less talent than Jim Boeheim’s Final Four team in 2016 that blossomed at the right time.
Florida State, a middling ACC team, made a statement by knocking out top-seeded Xavier after trailing by 12 with just about 10 minutes to go. Then in crunch time, FSU looked like the better seed. “We were much better than Xavier in the last two and a half minutes of the game,” Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton told reporters. “Sometimes when the games are close, that’s all that’s important.”
Then there’s Texas A&M, which features an imposing frontcourt of Robert Williams, Tyler Davis and D.J. Hogg. For teams that rely on great guard play to advance (that’s 80% of the Sweet 16 teams), the Aggies are a terrible nightmare. Just ask North Carolina from its 21-point drubbing. 3. Kansas State is the villain of March Madness: The ninth-seeded Wildcats sent home the NCAA tournament’s most likable Cinderella on Sunday, just two days after No. 16 seed Maryland Baltimore County pulled off the biggest upset in NCAA tournament history. This is a team the country fell in love with as history was made.
Coach Bruce Weber and Kansas State are a decent team that fought its way off the NCAA tournament bubble and earned an impressive first-round win over Creighton to earn its shot against UMBC. But it’s safe to say the Wildcats won’t bring the same type of spotlight as UMBC would have in Atlanta. Right now, with the Cinderella dust wearing off, Kansas State has been cast as this March’s biggest villain.
4. Comeback king Nevada has set up a glorious mid-major Cinderella showdown: The two mid-majors remaining in these NCAAs will square off with an Elite Eight on the line, as Nevada meets a dynamic offense and stout defense in Loyola-Chicago. Could this be where Loyola’s fundamental, floor-spacing offense gets bested by two versatile 6-7 brothers in Caleb and Cody Martin? Or could it be where Nevada — the comeback king of these NCAAs — runs out of the resiliency that helped the Wolf Pack knock out Texas and Cincinnati? 5. Should we stop sleeping on Clemson? The short answer here is absolutely yes. Or at least stop thinking of Clemson as just a football school. Much like Ohio State, the Tigers were considered one of the most vulnerable No. 5 seeds expected to either lose in the first round against a viable mid-major (Clemson handled New Mexico State) or second round by a better-seeded No. 4. Consider the Tigers 31-point beatdown of Auburn a message to doubters.
“I think it’s a statement game,” Clemson guard Marcquise Reed told reporters after the win. “I think we showed how hard we can compete defensively.”
Examining the biggest surprises
Here’s a look at the six most surprising teams that are still dancing heading into the second weekend.
Are they pretenders or contenders? No. 11 seed Syracuse
Pretender: The Orange are channeling 2016’s Final Four run in these NCAAs by shooting from the First Four round to the Sweet 16. They beat Arizona State in Dayton and then took down TCU in the first round, but the most impressive showing came Sunday when Syracuse stunned No. 3 Michigan State, a trendy Final Four pick. Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone is difficult to prepare for in limited time, and we saw the Spartans’ horrid shooting percentage prove that. But now that teams have a longer period of time to prepare (even if it’s just a few days), look for this team’s real weakness – only three capable scorers on offense – to be exploited by title favorite Duke. No. 11 seed Loyola-Chicago
Contender: The Ramblers don’t have a superstar, and they’ve barely survived their first two NCAA tournament wins off last-second shots. But keep in mind these weren’t Hail Mary shots. Donte Ingram’s top-of-the-key game-winner vs Miami and Clayton Custer’s game-winner vs Tennessee were both a product of a well-oiled offensive machine that coach Porter Moser has orchestrated. Great floor spacing, extra passing and gritty defense might make this team the Hoosiers of the Sweet 16, but it also makes them a viable threat. No. 9 seed Florida State
Contender: Many experts picked No. 8 seed Missouri to stun Xavier in the second round. Instead the Seminoles ousted Mizzou and the No. 1 seeded Musketeers in thrilling fashion. Coach Leonard Hamilton’s team is athletic and plays with a chip-on-the-shoulder tenacity that could make things tough for Sweet 16 opponent Gonzaga. No. 9 seed Kansas State
Pretender: The Wildcats played beneficiary to UMBC’s historic upset of No. 1 Virginia and the Retrievers’ fall back down to earth. After beating a better-seeded Creighton team in the first round, the Wildcats showed their might as a powerful Big 12 team against little-engine-thatcould UMBC. Pathways to the Sweet 16 don’t determine how a team will fare once it makes it there, but don’t expect to see KSU reach the Elite Eight. Kentucky is one of the hottest teams in the tourney and has twice the talent. It’d take a determined effort from Bruce Weber’s squad and a step backwards by UK’s youngsters for that upset to happen. No. 7 seed Nevada
Contender: Nevada is the comeback king of these NCAAs, storming back from 14 down to drop Texas in overtime and then pulling off an even larger (22 down) upset comeback over Final Four contender Cincinnati on Sunday. Coach Eric Musselman’s group is never short on the dramatics, which have made them one of the funnest teams to watch thus far. The Wolf Pack have two weapons in twins Caleb and Cody Martin that their Sweet 16 opponent doesn’t have. No. 7 seed Texas A&M
Contender: The SEC’s regular-season champs, Auburn and Tennessee, are gone. But the seventh-seeded Aggies, who underachieved all of the regular season, have found their groove here in the tournament. To beat the defending champs by 20+ points took a horrid shooting night from North Carolina and a well-executed game plan by A&M. And that game plan, as well as whatever coach Billy Kennedy draws up for his Sweet 16 matchup with Michigan, will center around the most imposing frontcourt in the entire tournament. The trio of Robert Williams, Tyler Davis and D.J. Hogg can take this team further than many thought.