Facing the big ‘ifs’
How will next week’s US-North Korea summit impact Iran-Israel issues?
Nobody has a clue as to what is going to happen next week on Tuesday when US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un meet in Singapore for the first meeting ever of the countries’ top leaders.
To be even more accurate, we cannot even say with 100% certainty that the meeting will occur, as in the space of only a few days each leader recently seemed to call it off, before calling it back on.
But assuming it happens, what are the most likely outcomes, and how will all of this impact the Iran nuclear situation and Israeli security? FIRST, ONE needs to dig under the verbiage.
Both Trump and Kim have talked about negotiating “denuclearization.” The ideal US deal would be that desperately poor North Korea gives up all of its nuclear weapons and its ability to produce new ones for an end to sanctions and a massive infusion of foreign aid and business deals. But from a variety of officials’ statements and analysis from pretty much all prior negotiators with Pyongyang, it defines this differently from Washington.
North Korean officials see two possibilities: a bigger deal and a smaller deal.
A bigger deal, assuming no North Korean cheating (a big “if”), means they really do give up all of their nuclear weapons and ability to produce them, but in exchange not just for economic aid, but for a full withdrawal of the US military from the Korean Peninsula and an end to US “interference.”
A smaller deal means the North gives up something undefined in the nuclear arena – maybe some weapons or some shuttering of some of its nuclear weapons productions facilities – but holds on to some of its nuclear capabilities, present or potential. In exchange, Pyongyang gets sanctions removed and the infusion of foreign aid, and the North, South Korea and the US all sign a peace treaty.
But Kim would not have to fully give up all nuclear weapons or all nuclear production facilities (possibly, they would be shuttered, but could potentially be reopened) and the US would not withdraw from the Korean Peninsula.
There is a giant gulf between US and North Korean expectations. US National Security Adviser John Bolton joined the Trump administration largely to enforce a maximum pressure campaign for the