Chances of a long-suffering nation winning World Cup is greater than normal
The World Cup is hurtling towards the end of its 21st staging, and though soccer is the most global of all games, success at its finest tournament has been reserved for a handful of bluebloods.
Anyone can play (as long as you qualify). But while the World Cup has allowed all kind of hopefuls and pretenders to peek through the glass ceiling and gaze at the sport’s ultimate trophy, that’s as far as it goes. Only eight different nations have won the event across its 88-year history, with only two new champions in the last nine World Cups.
Yet after a spate of stunning results and big-name departures who were dispatched from Russia, the championship has, with eight teams left and the quarterfinals imminent, opened up significantly.
Significantly enough that the likelihood of a long-suffering nation finding its way into the winners’ circle is far greater than normal. A quirk in the draw has seen the left side of the bracket remain stacked, while the right side is situated in a way that a shocking finalist is guaranteed.
Russia and Croatia will face off in one quarterfinal, with the Russians having never progressed past the group stage since the breakup of the Soviet Union. The USSR did make one semifinal, placing fourth in 1966. Croatia also has one last four finish, in 1998, where it lost to France in the semifinal.
Sweden or England will face the winner of that game. The Swedes reached the final in 1958 and the semifinal in 1994, but have never lifted soccer’s elite trophy. England, despite winning it all on home soil in 1966, perhaps has an even more tortured World Cup tale, falling short on a number of occasions, often courtesy of a heartbreaking penalty shootout.
One of those four teams will be playing in the final in the Luzhniki Stadium next Sunday. None of them was expected to do so at the start of the tournament. Russia was the lowest ranked team in the event, at No. 70, but cruised through its group before ousting Spain on penalties thanks to the goalkeeping heroics of Igor Akinfeev.
Croatia and Sweden have both defied expectations, while England has repeatedly talked down its chances but now has an expectant nation back home believing its time has come again under head coach Gareth Southgate. Certainly, it has never had a better chance to repeat that success from 52 years ago.
The other side on the draw, however, is a murderer’s row of star-studded teams that have all shown dominant form. Brazil is automatically among the chief contenders in any tournament, thanks to its extraordinary pedigree and a record five World Cup titles.
France, spearheaded by dynamic youngster Kylian Mbappe, has surged its way to this point, but faces its toughest challenge in a Uruguay team that has Luis Suarez in imperious form.
Making up the contingent on that side of the draw is Belgium, winless in World Cups but long considered one of the most dangerous teams in the event.
There has been a lot to like about this World Cup: plenty of goals, high-octane entertainment and even Russia putting on a friendly face for the throng of traveling fans. But its unpredictability has been an unexpected joy, one that could give an unheralded nation a shot at a moment of cherished history.