How feasible is a two-state solution today?
Will there be a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? How likely is it that a Palestinian state will be declared alongside Israel as part of a permanent solution – one that is widely supported by the international community and has evaded Israeli and Palestinian leaders for decades?
These are the questions the Geneva Initiative’s Two-State Index (TSI) monthly assessment of the road to the two-state solution is trying to answer. The index analyzes current developments and organizes them into a simple, clear graphic representation each month.
The Geneva Initiative was officially launched in 2013 after a two-year secret negotiation conducted by leading Israeli and Palestinian architects of previous rounds of negotiations. Although not binding, it received broad international support but was criticized by then-prime minister Ariel Sharon.
The TSI draws heavily, though not exclusively, on input and analysis from the original Geneva Initiative.
Included in the calculation are four major factors: The political and public arenas, the diplomatic and legal arenas, the reality on the ground and the solvability of the core issues.
In addition to the rather simplistic chart, the TSI offers a detailed analysis of each of the factors included in the calculation.
“Examining more than 50 different parameters, the Two-State Index organizes and systematizes the latest developments and determines whether they create progress toward or regress away from two states,” the official TSI websites reads. “Ultimately, the TSI produces a coherent assessment of the plight of the twostate option.”
So where do we stand today according to the TSI?
The answer for July 2018 is a 5.38/10 mark which is slightly lower than June (5.53/10) but higher than May and April.
This month’s decrease of the score by 2.9% is attributed to tensions mounting in Jerusalem, stalling US diplomacy as well as challenges posed by the humanitarian situation in Gaza and the passage of the NationState Law.
The lower mark in the category of the political and public arena in July as compared to June, for example, is due to declining support of the Palestinian public and the United States for a two-state solution, in addition to the decreasing effectiveness of pro-two-state Palestinian civil society actors.
While there were no changes in the diplomatic and legal arena or the solvability of the core issues, according to the index, the reality on the ground slightly deteriorated.
This is explained by a lower score in the effectiveness of governance in the Palestinian Authority areas in the West Bank and stricter limitations of access to holy sites.
In the same category, the index reported a slight rise in effectiveness of governance in the Gaza Strip.
The TSI was introduced an April 2018 and is still being tweaked to increase efficiency in order to investigate all parameters fully. The index is available in English, Arabic and Hebrew at index.genevainitiative.org.