Gaza’s future
On Sunday, the security cabinet is expected to convene to discuss a possible deal with Hamas that has been in the works for several weeks.
According to the deal being brokered by Egypt and United Nations Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Nickolay Mladenov, Hamas and Fatah will reconcile and reunite. In exchange, Israel and the international community will increase aid to Gaza and possibly begin allowing Gazans into Israel for work. Hamas will also agree to prevent the rash of kite and balloon arson attacks that have ravaged Israel’s South as well as the weekly violent gatherings at the Gaza-Israel border. And, of course, there is the issue of the Israelis begin held by Hamas in Gaza.
The situation seems to be serious. On Thursday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu canceled next week’s trip to Colombia to attend the inauguration of newly-elected President Ivan Duque. Officials hinted that Netanyahu needed to stay in Israel so he would be available if there is a breakthrough in the negotiations. In another sign that a deal might be close, Israel and Egypt allowed senior Hamas official Saleh al-Arouri, who is known to have directed terrorist attacks in the West Bank from Turkey, into Gaza to help finalize the reconciliation.
Israel’s interests are threefold. First, it wants assurances that the weekly protests along the border are stopped, as well as the dangerous daily kite and balloon arson attacks. Second, it wants to retrieve the Israelis – alive and dead – who are being held by Hamas in Gaza.
And third, it seeks a long-term cease-fire with Hamas, knowing ultimately that if Gaza continues to deteriorate, Israel will be the one to pay the price.
On the one hand, according to defense officials, there is a correlation between the Gaza’s humanitarian and economic situation and the launching of rockets into Israel. When there is no economic future, Hamas feels it has less to lose. When the opposite is true, Hamas is more restrained.
This does not mean that if hundreds of millions of dollars are suddenly poured into Gaza Hamas would moderate its views, lay down its weapons and recognize Israel’s right to exist. But it does make it realize it has much to lose in terms of physical assets, control and public support.
On the other hand, a reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas carries with it the possibility that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas would reassert his control over Gaza and further clamp down on Hamas and other terrorist groups there, such as Islamic Jihad.
Netanyahu has managed the recent Gaza crisis well. While many Israelis are upset with the ongoing aerial arson attacks that have already burned more than 3,000 hectares (7,400 acres), Israel has managed to steer clear of a large-scale military operation in Gaza.
This is part of the government’s understanding that such an operation would not change the reality in Gaza. It would weaken Hamas and destroy much of its terrorist infrastructure, but it would not change the long-term reality in southern Israel. Hamas would be deterred for a period of time but would then renew its attacks and bring us back to the brink of a military clash after two, three or four years.
However significant, Israel’s role in all of this is also limited. As long as Hamas does not cease its desire to destroy Israel and its attempts to do so, there is only so much that Israel can do.
As The Jerusalem Post’s Palestinian Affairs correspondent Khaled Abu Toameh reported recently, Hamas leaders are split on what to do. Some want to reach a deal; others want to continue the conflict.
If Hamas accepts the deal, its rivals will accuse it of selling out to Israel and the US.
On the other hand, rejecting a deal that might improve Gaza living conditions could potentially prompt desperate Palestinians to revolt against Hamas.
Ultimately, the people of Gaza will have to decide: Do they want a better future or one of more war and bloodshed?