Major escalation as Gaza calculates conflict
Wednesday’s Grad rocket fire at 3:39 a.m. from Gaza was a major escalation – especially since it succeeded in hitting a residence, although there were no injuries – and the first time a rocket was fired at Beersheba since early August.
Within hours of two large rockets being fired, Hamas and other Palestinian factions in the coastal enclave had denied firing the rockets, pointing to a desire for continued calm.
This leaves many questions about what happened Wednesday morning and how the Gaza Palestinians, Israel and the region will respond.
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Wednesday’s Grad rocket fire at 3:39 a.m. from Gaza was a major escalation – especially since it succeeded in hitting a residence, although there were no injuries – and the first time a rocket was fired at Beersheba since early August. Within hours of two large rockets being fired, Hamas and other Palestinian factions in the coastal enclave had denied firing the rockets, pointing to a desire for continued calm. This leaves many questions about what happened Wednesday morning and how the Gaza Palestinians, Israel and the region will respond.
Palestinian riots and clashes along the Gaza border have now entered their seventh month, with 30 weeks of clashes that have killed almost 200 in Gaza and led to thousands of wounded. Israeli politicians have also been pushing for a stronger response as the clashes continue. Incendiary balloons have burned half of the forests and green areas in the Gaza periphery, according to a report on Tuesday. Increasingly, Palestinian teams launching the balloons have been targeted by the IAF.
Hamas has been playing both sides in recent weeks. It seeks to bolster attempts at an Egyptian-brokered cease-fire, and it wants to insert itself into West Bank politics. It has been issuing press releases critiquing the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority. It also talks tough in Gaza. “The Israeli threats do not deter the Palestinian people, nor do they break their will,” it said in response to Jerusalem’s October 15 calls for tougher action on the Gaza border.
On the morning of October 17 after the rockets had been fired, it took Hamas six hours to issue a statement denying responsibility for launching the rockets. Why did it take so long for Hamas to understand that its own “militant arm” had not fired on Israel? Obviously, it knew what had happened hours earlier, if not immediately. Journalist and analyst Neri Zilber postulated on Twitter that the rockets were likely fired by the Mujahadeen Shura Council, a “breakaway al-Qaeda-tinged Gazan jihadi group. They do have rocket capacity.”
A joint operations command associated with Hamas and the other Gazan groups such as Islamic Jihad claimed the rockets were an “irresponsible attempt to sabotage the Egyptian effort [at a cease-fire],” but also claimed Hamas was ready to confront aggression.
Gaza is not the main issue on the region’s agenda, as Turkey and Saudi Arabia are in the midst of a major crisis over missing Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo flew from Riyadh to Turkey on Wednesday, seeking to find a way past the imbroglio in which Saudis are accused of murdering the journalist in their Istanbul consulate. With all eyes on Ankara, including Qatar and Egypt – major regional allies of both countries – the situation in Gaza is being seen more narrowly. Qatari-purchased diesel fuel was recently delivered to Gaza, but Doha appears to be taking a back seat publicly on the Gaza crisis. This means there are fewer constraints on both Hamas and Israel in the calculations of what comes next, and is likely why Hamas has chosen to deny any role in the rocket fire.
If the rockets were not fired by Hamas then it will also show the weakness of the terrorist group and its inability to control the Gaza Strip. It will also show that dangerous weapons able to target central Israel are in the hands of other groups. Neither of this is good for Hamas, which is seeking a cease-fire, and wants to show that it can call off the weekly protests in favor of quiet. Hamas wants the blockade removed – but how can it guarantee quiet and security while allowing large rockets to be fired that threaten areas far from Gaza? If Hamas’s real calculation was to want it both ways, to threaten and also play at a cease-fire deal, neither Jerusalem nor Cairo will accept this Janus-faced stance.
Hamas knows it is out of options in Gaza. After trying tunnels, rockets, naval commandos and 30 weeks of riots, it has achieved almost nothing apart from burning the fields and forests in southern Israel. The rocket fire, including a house being hit in Beersheba, will provide encouragement for those in Gaza who think terrorism could be effective. This comes at a problematic time for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar who, despite his reputation as a hard fighter, has indicated he wants a cease-fire and is trying to salvage 12 years of Hamas failures in Gaza.