‘Iran was closer to nukes than we thought’

Iran was closer to developing nuclear weapons than previously thought, according to a think tank report issued late Tuesday.

A report by the Institute for Science and International Security said that combining new information provided by the Mossad after its January raid on a Tehran warehouse along with satellite imagery “conclusively shows that the Parchin site did house high explosive chambers capable for use in nuclear weapons research and development.”

While the focus of the report is Iran’s activities up until 2003, the premise of the report and of the documents that the Mossad appropriated from a site in Tehran which had not been disclosed to the IAEA is that the tests performed mean Iran could break out to building a weapon faster than previously thought.

There are unending debates about whether the Islamic Republic is currently around 12 months or closer to six months from being able to produce a nuclear bomb, if it made the choice.

Based on the new report, Iran has already overcome some of the obstacles to building a bomb which experts thought it had not yet overcome. This would shorten the countdown number.

Moreover, the report implies that from photos from the Mossad-appropriated documents, it appears Iran has not accounted for complex equipment for the process of developing a nuclear weapon – meaning the IAEA should be confronting Tehran about where and whether it is hiding it.

Authored by the think tank’s director, David Albright, by former IAEA deputy director-general Olli Heinonen and other top experts, the report said that “the additional evidence specifically mentions explosions and radioactivity at the Parchin site, and this information far more vividly establishes Iran’s nuclear weapons-related activities there.”

The report said that the Mossad-obtained “nuclear archive shows that Iran conducted at Parchin more high explosive tests related to nuclear weapons development than previously thought .... This work appears to have involved more than what the IAEA called feasibility and scientific studies,” as the IAEA asserted in a December 2015 report.

In addition, “the information highlights dual-use, controlled equipment used at the site, such as a flash X-ray system utilizing a Marx generator and a variety of neutron measurement equipment, with electronics, designed to monitor high speed, explosively driven tests of a neutron source commonly used in a nuclear weapon.

“This type of equipment can be expensive and very difficult for Iran to obtain, given sanctions and export controls. As a result, it would be expected that Iran has stored this equipment for future use or assigned it to other projects. An important question is: where is it now?” asked the report.

Also “at issue remains whether Iran is simply preserving, curating, and improving its nuclear weapons capabilities, awaiting a decision to reconstitute a fullblown nuclear weapons program at a later date .... Failure to destroy all these documents and, purportedly, the equipment used in these activities,” violate its 2015 commitment never to seek nuclear weapons.

The report said that “the IAEA needs access to the Parchin site and associated facilities, such as the company or companies where the high explosive chambers were manufactured, as well as individuals identified as having worked during this time period at the site. Environmental sampling should be conducted at all the buildings at the site.

“There is no proof that Iran has abandoned its goal of building nuclear weapons, only that it has accepted that its projects and plans are put on the shelf. Is it hiding ongoing activities and progress...? Should not Iran verifiably destroy all its nuclear weapons documentation and equipment? There is no way to know, without more and effective IAEA inspections,” concluded the report.