Global warning
Changing the way we produce and consume food
How will the world feed the additional almost 3three billion people expected on the planet in the next three decades?
With the global population set to rise to 9.8 billion by 2050, a report published Wednesday by the research organization World Resources Institute calls for a daunting set of aggressive changes to agriculture, land use and consumption to feed the world’s booming population without destroying Earth in the process.
“We have to change how we produce and consume food, not just for environmental reasons, but because it is an existential issue for humans,” Janet Ranganathan, vice president for science and research at the institute and an author of the report, said in a press call.
“The issue and the challenge are much bigger than we realized, but the solutions are doable and they come with multiple benefits.”
The core recommendations of the 96-page report line up with many of the innovations that are already happening, sometimes at a small scale, at many Bay Area farms, food companies and tech startups. That includes the development of plantbased meat substitutes, companies and local governments that focus on reducing food waste, and farms that are making changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Working in partnership with the United Nations, the World Bank and other organizations, WRI spent six years on the report, titled, “Creating a Sustainable Food Future.”
The most dramatic finding of the report is that at current rates of consumption, food production will need to increase by 56%, without expanding the world’s existing agricultural land – and while reducing greenhouse gas emissions from farming by two-thirds.
Agriculture’s move into the world’s tropical areas is causing mass deforestation; a huge increase in productivity on existing farmland, as well as better protection of existing forest, is needed to reverse that trend, the authors said.
“If today’s levels of production efficiency were to remain constant through 2050, then feeding the planet would entail clearing most of the world’s remaining forests, wiping out thousands more species, and releasing enough GHG emissions to exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius warming targets specified in the Paris Agreement – even if emissions from all other human activities were entirely eliminated,” the report concludes.
The report calls on governments to fund research and development and to provide “flexible regulations” for new technology such as plant-based meat substitutes and innovations in plant breeding like genetic editing.
Reducing consumption, for example by cutting food waste, would decrease the amount of extra food needed to feed the world’s growing population. An estimated onethird of all food produced globally is wasted, accounting for $1 trillion in annual losses. The report calls on companies and governments to reduce food waste by 50% by 2050.
Individuals should make changes to their diets, too, the authors say, especially in wealthy countries like the United States where the majority of animal-based foods are eaten.
Because the production of beef and other ruminants, like lamb and goats, contributes the most to greenhouse gas emissions and water and land use, the report recommends that residents of wealthier countries reduce their consumption of red meat by 40%, which amounts to 1½ servings per week.
“We think a burger-and-a half a week is still doable,” said Richard Waite, an author of the report.
A lot of the technological advances the report urges are happening in the Bay Area. The region has become a global hub for the creation of plantbased meat substitutions, including those made by Impossible Foods of Redwood City.
A new batch of companies is developing lab-grown or “cultured” meat that will be made of chicken, beef or fish tissue from cells, but won’t require raising or killing animals. Meanwhile, many food companies are working on ways to reduce their waste and utilize foods like the “ugly” produce that Oakland’s Imperfect Produce sells and that would otherwise go to waste.
Because it was focused on the most common forms of agriculture worldwide, the report didn’t address the growing industry of vertical or indoor farming, a method that takes up less land and uses less water and fertilizer, but that requires large up-front investments and high electricity use. San Mateo’s Crop One announced in July that it would build the world’s largest vertical farm in Dubai at a cost of $40 million.
(San Francisco Chronicle/TNS)