What’s behind Tehran’s aggression?

The seizure of a British oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is the latest example of how tensions between the US and Iran have spilled into one of the world’s most strategic and vital waterways for oil. Since May, Iran has been accused of harassing and attacking numerous oil tankers in the strait, which is the busiest, most important waterway in the oil industry.

As the British government continues to investigate Friday’s seizure, experts worry that it raises the potential of a military clash. However, they also say it offers a lens into Iran’s strategy toward the US and it’s allies.

Over the last several months, the US has accused Iran of attacking and harassing commercial shipping vessels on the waterway, as well as shooting down a US drone over the Persian Gulf. Additionally, American warships have had close encounters with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

In recent weeks, the US and its allies have found themselves responding tit-for-tat with Iran. On July 4, British marines seized an Iranian oil tanker off the coast of Gibraltar after claiming it had violated European Union sanctions by transporting oil to Syria. Late last week, the US said it had downed an Iranian drone; Iran denied it.

This isn’t the first time that the Strait of Hormuz has been the site of international conflict. During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, the waterway became a point of contention for the warring countries. Iran placed sea mines in the paths of ships, and Iraq retaliated by firing missiles at them.

Experts said that Iranian officials are trying to demonstrate to the US and its allies that the

Islamic Republic is able to push back and gain leverage against the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” policy, which intensified after the US pulled out of the landmark nuclear deal in May 2018 and reimposed crippling sanctions, making it difficult for Iran to export oil, the foundation of the country’s economy.

China, Russia and leading Western European countries have sought ways around the US sanctions, but it has been difficult to bypass them.

“The message that Iran is sending is that it is capable of making international waters unsafe not just for the US, but for international trade,” said Reza Akbari, a program manager and Iran expert at the Institute for War and Peace Reporting.

By escalating the risk of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, Ariane Tabatabai, an associate political scientist at Rand Corp., said that Iranian officials will be able to use that as leverage and bargaining if they were to resume negotiations with the US.

“The Iranian strategy is designed to get Europeans and the international community to step up and force the US to change its policy,” Tabatabai said. “Iranian officials want to make sure the international community also understands that they have a stake. But the situation remains fragile, and it’s unclear whether Iran’s gamble will pay off or raise the risk of a military conflict.” (Los Angeles Times) •