Japan’s ruling bloc set for upper house majority
Potential 2/3 ‘super majority’ according to NHK exit poll
TOKYO (Reuters) – Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling bloc is set to retain a majority in Japan’s upper house election on Sunday, and may potentially seal the two-thirds majority needed to realize his goal of revising the pacifist constitution, an NHK exit poll predicts.
Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner, the Komeito party, should take between 67-77 of the 124 contested seats in parliament’s 245-seat upper house. A win of that magnitude, together with the uncontested seats, will assure that the ruling bloc maintains their majority.
Still up in the air, however, is whether the ruling bloc and its allies will win the two-thirds “super majority” needed to begin the process of revising the constitution’s pacifist Article 9, which is a controversial step by further legitimizing the military. To reach a “super majority,” pro-revision forces need to win 85 seats, and NHK’s exit poll predicts 76 to 88 seats.
The charter has not been amended since it was enacted in 1947. Changing it would be hugely symbolic, underscoring a shift from post-WWII pacifism. Article 9, if taken literally, bans maintenance of a military; however, it has been stretched to permit armed forces for self-defense purposes only.
Surveys show that voters are divided over amending it, as opponents are worried that doing so would increase the risk of Japan getting entangled in US-led conflicts.
Abe, who took office in December 2012 pledging to restart the economy and bolster defense, is running as the best bet for political stability. Opposition parties have focused on finances, with an October 10% rise in sales tax and strains on the pension system in the shrinking, fast-aging population.
Aided by a fragmented opposition and low turnout, Abe has led his party to victory in five national elections since returning as the LDP leader in 2012. He will become Japan’s longest-serving premier if he stays in office until November.