Threat to US from Iranian-backed forces in Iraq increases, US report says
Islamic State using displaced persons camp to rebuild in Syria • Maintenance failures keeping Baghdad’s ScanEagle tactical drones grounded
Rhetoric by pro-Iranian groups in Iraq, as well as the threat from Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have increased in the last several months, according to a US report.
The quarterly Lead Inspector General Report covers incidents from April to the end of June and examines the US-led anti-ISIS operations in Iraq and Syria.
In Syria, the report notes that Iran “continues to field Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] soldiers, support Lebanese Hezbollah and command [Shi’ite] foreign fighter networks.” This includes up to 3,000 IRGC and up to 100,000 of these Shi’ite fighters, some of whom come from as far away as Pakistan and Afghanistan and were recruited to help the Syrian regime.
US policy since last year has been for Iran to withdraw from Syria, but the US says that there has been no change on the ground. Instead they “improved their capability” to use drones and missiles in Syria. The report notes that there are “no specific increase in threats to US forces in Syria from Iranian-backed forces this quarter.”
The report also notes that Iraqi Shi’ite paramilitaries are operating in Syria to support the Syrian government. They participate in operations along the border and some even have strayed as far away as southern Syria near a US base called Tanf on the Jordanian border. But the US Operation Inherent Resolve, whose mandate is to fight ISIS, has no authority to fight Iranian forces unless they are attacked. This creates a puzzle for Washington. While the US says it wants Iran out of Syria, it won’t do anything about it. In Iraq the US is an ally of the Iraqi government and training Iraqis to fight ISIS. But the Hashd al-Shaabi, or Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), of Shi’ite paramilitaries are now part of the Iraqi Security Forces. The US report notes that “US forces in Iraq do not partner with PMF elements.”
ISIS CAMPS
ISIS is attempting a resurgence in Syria and it is using both the desert and a massive displaced persons camp to regrow its network, according to the report.
The report looks at Operation Inherent Resolve, the US-led coalition against ISIS. In Syria ISIS was largely defeated on the ground in March but it maintains supporters who fled to desert areas, or across the border to Iraq, or ended up in detention camps. The report identifies all these areas as looming problems.
The main US partners in Syria are the Syrian Democratic Forces. The US is investing in these forces to build them up so they can stabilize areas liberated from ISIS over the last four years. That includes training three components of these security forces, including the combat troops of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a provincial internal security force and other internal security forces. For a sparsely populated area the US is trying to bring these forces up to a total of 110,000. The SDF suffered 134 casualties between April and the end of June, the period the report covers. 1,600 fighters were recruited for the SDF.
The US praises its partners as being capable of unassisted raids, but notes they need more training. The US is equipping them primarily with small arms, such as AK-47s. The US has also reduced its airstrikes in Syria to only 29 in the last months. It used to be up to 29 in a single day during the height of the ISIS war.
DRONES
Iraq has 10 ScanEagle tactical drones that are used for long flights at low altitude to monitor threats such as ISIS. But the Iraqi drones have carried out only two sorties since March because of apparent maintenance or other shortfalls, according to the report released this week.
The US is assisting Iraq in its anti-ISIS operations and has been contributing hundreds of millions of dollars to training, equipping and helping Iraq stabilize its countryside in areas liberated from the extremists since 2015. This is a massive program, parts of which have been successful. But the report indicates Iraq may face some long-term problems with its fleet of drones. The report says “maintenance problems resulted in only one of Iraq’s more than 10 CH-4 aircraft” being mission capable.
The aircraft is a Chinese-made unmanned aerial system, or drone. The US says it is like the MQ-9 Reaper. Similarly, the Boeing ScanEagle tactical drones that Iraq has don’t seem to be flying much. “Shortfalls have resulted in a 50% decrease in Iraq’s fixed-wing ISR (intel, surveillance and reconnaissance) sorties compared to the same period last year.”
The US is plowing up to $1b. for training and equipping local forces in Iraq and Syria. But ISIS has a foothold in Iraq. It can move “freely” between Iraq and Syria in small groups of 20. This is “due to limited Iraqi Security Forces” on the border. The US-led coalition says that the ISF “did not plan or conduct any deliberate operations along the Iraq-Syria border this quarter.” But the US says the Iraqi 15th division in Nineveh has been arresting ISIS members. But the report says that “ISIS reorganizes leadership” and seeks to establish safe havens in Iraq. Iraq has made only “short-term gains.”