What eased Iran sanctions could mean for Israel
Following Bolton’s departure, will the US maximum pressure campaign against Iran survive?
On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump fired John Bolton from his role as national security advisor. Trump indicated on Twitter that he “strongly disagreed with many of his [Bolton’s] suggestions, as did others in the administration.”
The president’s final remarks followed the recent policy debacle over Afghanistan. Initially, Trump suggested he was open to pursuing US-Taliban peace talks, while Bolton openly and vehemently opposed this prospect. Ultimately, Trump retracted his position.
However, based on Trump’s most recent comments, Bolton’s dismissal may have been influenced by the administration’s Iran policy. On Monday, the notion of easing sanctions which target the Islamic Republic of Iran was discussed in the Oval Office, according to Bloomberg News. Unsurprisingly, Bolton, who has been consistently labeled for his “hawkish” tendencies and tough attitude toward Iran, opposed this idea.
Trump responded to speculation that he may be gearing up for a face-to-face with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani alongside the UN General Assembly meeting next week by saying, “We’ll see what happens.”
Bolton had advocated that the US withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), long before his appointment to national security advisor last May. In his 2017 open letter to the president, Bolton highlighted why the nuclear agreement threatened US and Israeli national-security interests and propped up a dangerous and unworthy regime. President Trump appeared to agree with Bolton’s stance, stating on many occasions that the JCPOA was the “worst deal ever negotiated” and a “disaster.”
With Bolton in place as NSA, Trump withdrew from the nuclear agreement. When the departure came into full effect last November, the US fully reinstated the sanctions on Iran that had been lifted or waived under the JCPOA. The US Treasury Department declared that these sanctions were “the toughest US sanctions ever imposed on Iran,” emphasizing the chaos they would bring to Iran’s economy and financial sectors.
The “maximum-pressure” campaign has been fully supported and implemented by Trump, John Bolton and Secretary of State Michael Pompeo. The prospect of Trump meeting with Rouhani could blur this strategy and ultimately underwrite the efforts of the administration thus far, which have been successful in damaging the regime’s credibility.
Retracting from a maximum pressure approach could further embolden Iranian aggression. Rouhani seemed pleased with Bolton’s departure, calling for the US to “put warmongers aside.” The regime’s recent behavior, however, should not elicit favorable policies on the part of the United States. In the last few months alone, Iran has initiated multiple attacks on oil vessels, demonstrating they are in fact capable of interrupting the global economic market. More recently, Iran has attacked Israel through its most dangerous terrorist proxy, Hezbollah, in various fire exchanges.
Considering its close proximity to Iran, Israel would face the most immediate consequences of any US policy reversal in this arena. The Trump administration must proceed carefully following Bolton’s departure as the easing of sanctions may not bode well for global security.
The writer is a master’s degree candidate in counter-terrorism and homeland security at IDC Herzliya’s Lauder School of Government. She is also the associate producer at the Center for Security Policy, located in Washington, DC.