Khamenei loyalists may tighten grip at Iran elections
DUBAI (Reuters) – Hard-liners are set to tighten control of Iran this week in a parliamentary election stacked in their favor, as the leadership closes ranks in a deepening confrontation with Washington.
Big gains by security hawks would confirm the political demise of the country’s pragmatist politicians, weakened by Washington’s decision to quit a 2015 nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions in a move that stifled rapprochement with the West.
More hard-liner seats in the February 21 vote may also hand them another prize – more leeway to campaign for the 2021 contest for president, a job with wide day-to-day control of government.
Such wide command of the power apparatus would open an era in which the Revolutionary Guards, already omnipresent in the life of the nation, hold ever-greater sway in political, social and economic affairs.
Allies of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have ensured hard-liners dominate the field, removing moderates and leading conservatives and permitting voters a choice mostly between hard-line and low-key conservative candidates loyal to him.
“Literally, it is not a race anymore,” a government official said. “Hard-liners want the presidency. This is the end of moderation for at least a decade if not more.”
Like hard-liners, conservatives back the ruling theocracy. But unlike them, they support more engagement with the outside world.
Faced with little choice, many voters are likely to be focused on bread-and-butter issues in an economy hurt by US President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy toward Iran.
With Iran facing growing isolation and threats of conflict over its nuclear standoff with the United States, and growing discontent at home, the turnout is seen as a referendum on the establishment – a potential risk for the authorities.
Many Iranians are furious over the handling of November protests against fuel price hikes, which swiftly turned political with demonstrators calling for “regime change,” leading to the bloodiest unrest in the history of the Islamic Republic.
A crackdown overseen by the Revolutionary Guards killed hundreds and led to the arrest of thousands, according to human-rights organizations.
The public is also livid over the accidental shooting down of a Ukrainian passenger plane in January that killed all 176 people onboard, mainly Iranians. After days of denials, Tehran admitted that the Guards were to blame.
But Khamenei’s loyalist candidates are backed by core supporters of the establishment who identify in all aspects of life with the Islamic
Republic, insiders said.
“Their supporters believe in the establishment, and they will vote because they see it as a religious duty,” the government official said. “Hard-liners will benefit from a low turnout.”
Speaking to Reuters, some authorities predicted a turnout of about 60% for the 290-seat assembly, compared with 62% and 66%, respectively, in the 2016 and 2012 elections. Some 58 million Iranians out of 83 million are eligible to vote.
“Iran is not only Tehran or other major cities where voters are politically motivated. In small cities, towns and generally in rural areas people will vote,” a hard-line official said.
With no independent, reliable opinion polls in Iran, it is hard to gauge which way the ballot will go, let alone the extent to which Khamenei and the Guards will exert their influence over the vote to cement their grip on power.
But pro-reform voters are dismayed by disarray in their camp and the failure of pragmatist President Hassan Rouhani to abide by an election pledge to ease social and political restrictions.
“Many Iranians [who voted for Rouhani] have lost their hope for reforms,” said a reformist former official. “They don’t trust the reform movement anymore. They want change and only change.”
A hard-line-dominated parliament could mount pressure on Rouhani, architect of the nuclear pact, who has been criticized by Khamenei’s influential allies for his performance in power.
“I beg you not to be passive... I am asking you... not to turn your back on ballot boxes,” Rouhani said in a speech on February 11.
The slate of hard-line candidates is dominated by the Guards, who answer directly to Khamenei, and their affiliated Basij militia, insiders and analysts say.
Aside from its vast economic holdings, the Guards have grown more politically assertive in recent decades, with increasing numbers of veterans in legislative and executive powers.
Former Guards commander Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who according to a leaked US diplomatic cable from 2008 has benefited from strong support from Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, tops the parliamentary lists of main hard-line groups in Tehran.
“We will serve wherever the revolution and our Imam [Khamenei] need us,” said a former Guardsman, who served in the government of former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. His reelection in 2009 sparked protests for months against alleged vote-rigging.
Parliamentary elections have scant impact on Iran’s foreign or nuclear policies, which are set by Khamenei, and major pro-reform parties have been either banned or dismantled since 2009.