Reducing public transport could worsen spread of coronavirus, experts say
As the Transportation Ministry announced new cancellations and restrictions on public transportation, experts warned that the measures could actually increase the likelihood of coronavirus infections rather than decrease it, according to Ynet.
Many citizens, especially those who have trouble traveling, such as the elderly, are dependent on public transportation. Research carried out by the Bank of Israel in 2019 showed that “entry level workers and those at lower socioeconomic status are characterized by higher usage of buses and shuttles organized by companies.”
Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics reported that 57.2% of families from the lower socioeconomic decile did not own a private vehicle in 2018. In the fourth decile, 33.2% of families did not own a private vehicle.
Prof. Arel Avineri, head of the Masters degree program in engineering and infrastructure systems at Afeka College, told Ynet that although there is a decrease in public transport use due to the coronavirus outbreak, a narrowing of public transport availability may not be desirable.
“In research conducted on SARS, it was proven that every time they spoke about the outbreak in media, there was a decline of 1,200 subway users in Taiwan, although it rose in return over time. Meaning, the public is in shock right now, but with time people will need to travel again – and public transport is necessary because not everyone has a car,” he said.
“A sweeping and lateral decision to reduce [public transport] is problematic,” said Avineri. “There are workplaces that will remain open and there are essential services that citizens will go to – such that, in general, public transport is an essential thing.
“This is a challenging period that demands more complexity concerning making decisions: on the one hand to lead to a proportionate reduction [of public transport] and on the other hand to not increase the crowding on lines, which could increase infections. The elderly, for example, rely on public transport and their mortality rates from the coronavirus are higher. Therefore, in certain areas, there should even be considerations for increased public transport.”
Transportation analyst Nachman Shelef explained to Ynet that there are bus lines that should be reduced, such as those that go to educational institutions or industrial zones, but an overall reduction could increase crowding on busy lines. “I hope they’re considering this factor,” said Shelef, “especially when most of those making the decisions use a private vehicle, and therefore don’t understand what it means to be dependent on public transportation rather than a car.”
The situation is still unfolding, so it’s still unclear what lines should be reduced, he said.
Shimrit Nutman, chairwoman of the “15 Minutes” Public Transportation Alliance organization, an NGO that advocates for better public transportation, also warned against a widespread reduction of public transport. Nutman stressed that unless businesses are closed completely, people will need to get to work, shopping and errands, and will need to use public transport to do so.
The number of travelers on Israel Rail dropped by at least 50% on Monday, according to Ynet, although Egged bus lines did not record any decline in passengers. Although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the disinfection of buses and trains last week, no official directive has been received by public transport operators and Israel Rail. The companies began disinfection operations on their own.