Gov’t will not stop int’l flights, arrivals to go to ‘quarantine hotels,’
A team of Bar-Ilan University researchers, led by Baruch Barzel of the Department of Mathematics, says it has a solution: alternating lockdowns.
First, the population will be split into two groups, Barzel told The Jerusalem Post. Then, these groups will alternate between lockdown and routine activity in weekly succession. At the same time, those who show symptoms of the novel coronavirus – fever, coughing or difficulty breathing – will be isolated.
“Together with the adoption of everyday prophylactic behaviors, this strategy can help defeat the virus, while sustaining socioeconomic activity at a 50% level,” Barzel explained. “We found that employing our strategy significantly reduces the spread and helps flatten the curve.”
These two groups of citizens will have little if any interaction, which would already slow the coronavirus spread. However, its main advantage is that it helps isolate the “invisible spreaders” – those who are asymptomatic or who became infected during their active week and don’t show symptoms until further on in the incubation period.
“Consider an individual who became infected during their active week: They are now in their pre-symptomatic period – the most dangerous stage,” Barzel said. “The crucial point is that, according to the alternating lockdown routine they are now scheduled to enter their lockdown phase.”
He said that while they are at home the next week, they
will most likely begin to exhibit symptoms, and therefore remain in isolation until full recovery.
“If following a week of lockdown they show no symptoms, they are most likely uninfected and can partake in social and professional activities during their active week,” he continued. “Therefore, alternating lockdown with full isolation of symptomatic spreaders ensures that at all times, the majority of invisible spreaders are inactive.
“Because we are synchronizing with the natural cycle of the disease, we are effectively isolating the invisible spreaders,” he concluded.
Barzel maintained that just by splitting the population, you are already reducing the amount of interaction and thereby lowering the infection rate. But, he said, “for COVID-19 this is