On 72nd Independence Day, Israel’s population at 9.2 m.

Israel’s population has hit almost 9.2 million people ahead of the Jewish state’s 72nd Independence Day, the Central Bureau of Statistics stated on Sunday, an increase of some 171,000 persons over the last 12 months, amounting to a population-growth rate of 1.9%.

The precise population count is 9.19 million Israelis, of whom 6.8 million, or 74%, are Jewish, 1.93 million, or 21%, are Arab, and 454,000 are non-Arab Christians, those of other faiths, or those registered as without religious classification, mostly the descendants of Jews from the former Soviet Union.

Over the last 12 months, around 180,000 babies were born, 32,000 people immigrated to the country, and 44,000 people passed away.

The CBS figures showed that 3.3 million people have immigrated to Israel in total since the founding of the state, 44% of whom came after 1990, presumably immigrants from the former Soviet Union.

Israel’s current population comprises 78% of citizens who were born here and 22% immigrants.

The population is also notably young. Some 28% of all citizens are children aged 0-14, while just 12% are 65 and over.

By comparison, the CBS said, the proportion of 0 -14 year-olds in other OECD countries is just 18%, while the size of the over 65 population is 17%.

By 2030, Israel’s population is expected to reach 11.1 million, 13.2 million by 2040 and 15.2 million by 2048, which will be Israel’s 100th anniversary.

And at present, 45% of the global Jewish population lives in Israel.

On Sunday, the Taub Center also released population projections, predicting that Israel’s population will rise to 12.8 million by 2040, according to a new forecast of demographic trends.

The Taub Center study, published three days before Independence Day, forecasts the elderly population will double by then.

The annual population growth rate is expected to fall from 1.87% today to 1.52% by 2040 due to a lower fertility rate. The Jewish share of the population will fall from 79% to 77.7%.

A substantial increase in the number of Israelis over the age of 70 is expected, more than doubling from 669,000 in 2017 to approximately 1.41 million in 2040, according to the study led by Prof. Alex Weinreb. The change is likely to have significant implications for the employment and welfare of seniors.

The rate of aging in the Arab-Israeli sector is forecasted to be higher than in the Jewish sector. Among the Jewish population, the number of citizens over the age of 70 is forecasted to increase 88% (from 615,000 to 1.21 million). Among Arabs, the same age group is expected to quadruple from 54,000 to 197,000.

A key factor is fertility rates, with Israel characterized by a very high number of births relative to mortality rates when compared with other developed countries.

During the next two decades, existing fertility rates among Jewish women are expected to continue. These include declining fertility rates among women under the age of 25, stable fertility rates among women ages 25-29, and a marked increase among women ages 30-44 as the age at first birth increases alongside single parenting.

The total fertility rate among Jewish women is expected to remain stable over the next decade at approximately 3.15 before falling to between 2.96 and 2.74 by the late 2030s.

While the study does not forecast demographic trends for the haredi (ultra-Orthodox) and non-haredi Jewish population, due to “too much movement across levels of religiosity,” fertility rates are much higher in the haredi sector.

Fertility rates among Arab women have declined in every age group since 2000, notably among women under the age of 30. The trend is forecast to continue and slow further due to rising higher-education levels and increased labor-market participation. Arab-Israeli women are expected to delay childbearing until an older age, with a likely increase in fertility among women aged 30-44.

Total fertility rates among Arab-Israeli women are expected to decrease from 3.14 to between 2.75 and 2.63 by the late 2030s.

While accurate predictions concerning migration are problematic, as it may be influenced by external events and individuals may move on several occasions, the overall migration balance in Israel is positive and rising, the study said.

A net increase of 184,000 migrants arrived in Israel between 2002 and 2017. As the vast majority was under the age of 40 upon arrival, they were able to contribute economically and to the population through births.

Noting Israel’s status as an attractive destination for labor migration, rising antisemitism in the Diaspora and the 20% rise in immigration in 2019, Weinreb expects immigration to exceed emigration. On an annual basis, 20,000 immigrants and returning residents are expected to enter Israel. An additional 1,400 immigrants entering for marriage, work, tourism or seeking asylum will become legal residents,

Regarding the coronavirus outbreak, Weinreb said the pandemic was unlikely to have a large effect on mortality rates or life expectancy.

“Remember, every year, more than 45,000 people die in Israel, about 17000 of them from heart disease and cancer, so coronavirus is not, on its current trajectory, going to change any of the assumptions used to shape these projections,” he said in the report.

“What we know so far is that the average age of death is 82, and most of those people have had other serious health conditions. So it’s more of an important test for the healthcare system and for the political class than a demographically significant event in the population. That will be the case even if, God forbid, deaths head into the thousands,” Weinreb said.