Shikaki: Annexation pressures Abbas to end Oslo, security coordination with Israel

‘PA leader is a status quo man – he does not like to rock the boat’

annexation has placed palestinian authority president mahmoud abbas under tremendous pressure to abandon his commitment to the oslo accords and to end security coordination with Israel, even though it could have “catastrophic” consequences, prof. Khalil shikaki said on Tuesday.

“If abbas does not go this route, his standing among the palestinian public will deteriorate significantly beyond where it is today – which is very, very low already,” said shikaki, who is director of the palestinian Center for policy and survey research in ramallah.

“he [abbas] is in a very difficult spot. If he goes ahead, the risks are tremendous and the consequences for these palestinians will also be tremendous,” shikaki said, as he spoke at a webinar hosted by the Israel policy Forum, which is opposed to annexation.

“Keep in mind that abbas is a status quo man. he does not like to rock the boat – and this is not something that he would do easily, to do what he threatens to do,” he said.

abbas “has already promised ending all relations [with Israel], including security, terminating commitments under oslo. This would essentially destroy the pa, leading to its gradual collapse,” shikaki said.

The pa president “normally uses threats as ways to convince others to abort what they are trying to do. In most cases when they call his bluff, he does nothing. so we do not know if he will do it this time,” he said.

“If his threat is simply a bluff, he loses the public. If he goes ahead, the consequences for the entire pa and the entire palestinian public will be extremely serious,” the professor said.

despite the risks, abandoning oslo and ending security coordination with Israel is the most favored response to annexation among the palestinian elite in the West Bank, its governmental institutions and the palestinian public, shikaki said.

he broke out four different responses to Israeli annexation of West Bank settlements.

palesTINIaNs hold that annexation, particularly within the context of us president donald Trump’s peace plan, would destroy any possibility of a two-state solution, so that the issue is viewed through this lens, he explained.

a violent response to halt annexation, particularly among the youth, is the second preferred option by the public, but does not have pa or abbas support.

The third option would be abandoning the two-state solution and promoting a one-state solution, also an alternative rejected by the pa but again supported by young palestinians, particularly those who are educated.

“In their view annexation opens the door for [one state] and that a Trump plan along with an Israeli decision to annex would take the palestinians there sooner or later,” shikaki said.

Finally, a small minority of palestinians – some 10% to 15% – want to re-engagement with the Trump administration, including an offer to renew bilateral talks with the Israelis, he said.

“The expectation is not that this would help renew the peace process but rather that it might help to freeze or avert any immediate need to move toward annexation.”

overall, he said, in the aftermath of the Trump plan, palestinians have a more hawkish attitude. They hold that the Trump plan returns the Israeli-palestinian conflict to its original state as an existential battle.

as a result, the willingness to compromise has gone down and support for violence rather than negotiations as a way to end the conflict has risen, shikaki said, adding that there is still not a majority who favor violence, but the numbers are rising.

Those who are younger do not remember the failures of past violent attempts, so those who are between 18 and 22 are most likely to favor this option, he said.

“The youth only know oslo and negotiations, and efforts to reach an agreement and failing and so on, and they therefore are likely to think that perhaps violence would work,” he said.

There has also been a change in the domestic balance of power as result of the Trump plan, with abbas falling behind hamas leader Ismail haniyeh in terms of public support, shikaki said.

The belief is that “abbas’s approach to ending occupation has failed and hamas’s approach is the way to go – and that leads to greater support for hamas.”

PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY President Mahmoud Abbas delivers a speech regarding the coronavirus outbreak, at Palestinian Authority headquarters in Ramallah on Tuesday.