Gantz holding keys to sovereignty

The IDF has not seen a map. The settler leaders have not seen a map and neither has the public. Nevertheless, annexation seems to be moving full steam ahead – despite warnings from the IDF and the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) that such a move could lead to a collapse of the Palestinian Authority.

Collapse of the PA, by the way, is considered in the Defense Ministry to be the worst-case scenario. On the scale of what might happen, a third intifada is surprisingly considered less harmful for Israel on a strategic level. Yes, there will be terror, but the IDF knows how to fight back. While it might take time, there is confidence in the IDF that it will succeed.

But the collapse of the

Palestinian Authority would be a whole new world for Israel. The reason this might happen is because for the Palestinians, annexation is the end of the Oslo paradigm, which not only brought the PA into existence but also launched the process of separation between Israel and its Palestinian neighbors.

If Mahmoud Abbas turns in the keys and shuts down the PA, that means Israel will have to step in. Israeli soldiers will once again have to take charge of the health system, the education system and the sewage pipes in Ramallah, Nablus and Tulkarm. These are jobs no commander will want to oversee and no mother will want her child doing.

But while all eyes seem fixed on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his meetings with the different settler leaders – those who oppose annexation because it is not enough and those who recognize the historic opportunity and support it – the person who might actually influence the process more than anyone else is Defense Minister Benny Gantz.

To understand why this is the case, it is important to first understand how annexation happens. Based on a legislative amendment made in 1967, all that is needed is a vote in the cabinet for land that was part of Mandatory Palestine to become part of the State of Israel. That is how Levi Eshkol annexed east Jerusalem after the Six Day War and that is how Netanyahu could potentially annex parts of the West Bank.

Nineteen of the ministers in the cabinet today are from the Likud and its haredi allies; the other 16 are from Blue and White and Labor. While Netanyahu could theoretically bring an annexation vote to the cabinet and win even if Gantz and his party votes against it, he is unlikely to do so – and the Americans are unlikely to support such a move.

The reason is because neither Netanyahu nor US President Donald Trump will want to be viewed as reckless in moving ahead with annexation and causing an outburst of violence.