PM, Blue and White on collision course
Rivlin: Get a grip – the country is not a rag doll you drag around as you squabble
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Blue and White Party exchanged allegations of political chicanery Thursday night, against the background of severe coalition tensions which erupted in the Knesset on Wednesday.
Amid heightened speculation that Netanyahu is seeking elections to strengthen his political position, the prime minister said in a press conference that “I am not seeking elections and I want a budget for the country, but my partners from Blue and White don’t want to pass one.”
Blue and White struck back immediately, saying that “the prime minister should cease the descent to elections and do two things: deal with the coronavirus crisis through a long-term budget, and stand by the agreement he signed two months ago.”
Their mutual contentions relate to a potentially fateful disagreement over whether to pass a one-year or two-year budget which, if unresolved, could cause automatic elections to be declared by August 25.
The exchange came following efforts on Thursday among the coalition parties to reduce the political tensions that broke out on Wednesday, with senior United Torah Judaism MK Moshe Gafni meeting with both Netanyahu and Justice Minister Avi Nissenkorn of Blue and White.
UTJ was left fuming on Wednesday after an opposition bill to ban gay conversion therapy was passed with the help of Blue and White votes.
The ultra-Orthodox party threatened a series of retaliatory measures, including bringing legislation antagonistic to Blue and White to a vote in the Knesset this week, although it is now reportedly backing away from such steps.
According to a report by Kan News, the meeting between Gafni and Nissenkorn
was positive, and UTJ is now reconsidering whether to bring its legislation to a vote next week.
UTJ MK and party faction chairman Yitzhak Pindrus told The Jerusalem Post, however, that he had not received any such instructions to pull the bills.
Gafni’s meeting with Netanyahu reportedly went less well, and UTJ is concerned about the prime minister’s intentions.
A senior UTJ source said that the party has “no idea what Bibi wants, but we’re concerned that he himself doesn’t know what he wants.”
UTJ is already upset with the prime minister for having allowed the bill to come to a vote and for his management of the coalition, as well as having concern that the ongoing delays in passing a budget will impact yeshiva stipends for the coming year.
A spokesman for the prime minister declined to comment on the meeting between Gafni and Netanyahu.
Shas chairman and Interior Minister Arye Deri has also expressed concern over the state of the coalition, but is opposed to new elections, telling his party’s mouthpiece HaDerech that the coalition is “at the brink of the abyss,” and that “the country cannot allow political paralysis in the midst of a severe public health and societal crisis: It’s unthinkable.”
Looming over Wednesday’s political fight is the bitter struggle over the budget, in which Blue and White is insisting on a two-year budget, as set out in the coalition agreement with the Likud, while Netanyahu is demanding a one-year budget.
A one-year budget for 2020 would give Netanyahu the opportunity to go to elections in March 2021 if the 2021 budget is not passed by the end of that month, without handing over the premiership to Blue and White leader Benny Gantz.
A report in Haaretz on Wednesday suggested that sources close to Netanyahu have indicated that he has decided to go to elections in November, primarily due to his legal entanglements and his desire to retake control of the Justice Ministry, currently held by Nissenkorn of Blue and White.
Polls released on Thursday night may, however, cause him to think twice about such a move, with the Likud rapidly losing support.
President Reuven Rivlin denounced the behavior of the coalition and the political infighting, accusing the warring parties of petty squabbling while the country is in crisis.
“I look on the developments in the Knesset with deep concern as they shake the already fragile relations between coalition
Hezbollah has sought to create a kind of balance of terror, or what the US in Iraq called “contested deterrence” along the border.
This is part of the “campaign between the wars” in which Israel has carried out more than 1,000 airstrikes in Syria against Iranian targets. Many Hezbollah members have been caught up in these airstrikes, with several reportedly killed.
In general, Hezbollah’s file is the area along the Golan, seeking to extend its area of control and threat from the Lebanese border which it already dominates, to areas along the Golan, such as around the village of Khadr which faces Majdal Shams.
Hezbollah has lost members in this area in the past. In August, two Hezbollah members of a “killer drone” team were killed near the Golan. Hezbollah also accused Israel of a drone attack in Beirut and vowed to respond. It galvanized Lebanese members of parliament and the president of Lebanon in its plans.
The terrorist group used Kornet missiles to strike at the IDF near Avivim and Yiron along the border on September 1, 2019.
Hezbollah filmed the attack and struck at a vehicle along the border. Israel had placed mannequins there in the days leading up to the attack, according to Lebanese reports.
Later, when the military vehicle was hit, the IDF “staged” an evacuation from the area, appearing to show wounded being taken away.
An investigation after this incident did fault an ambulance for being present in the area, but otherwise Hezbollah was able to carry out a serious attack while Israel was prepared and no casualties resulted. It appeared that the terrorist group saved face through this by being able to show it had retaliated.
An attack into Har Dov:
Hezbollah claims that it is “defending” Lebanon and that it is the “resistance” against Israel. It claims to be trying to recover lost Lebanese territory in the area it calls Shaba Farms and which Israel calls Mount Dov.
This is basically a hilly and mountainous area along the border with Lebanon and Syria, which is actually land disputed with Syria.
While Hezbollah’s propaganda about Mount Dov is nonsensical, it has serious implications because the group believes it has a blank check to carry out attacks there as part of its “resistance.”
It has indicated in the past that the way it views Israel is contained in several circles.
One circle is Mount Dov and operations there. A second circle is the Lebanon-Israel “Blue Line” border from 1948. This area is where Hezbollah has planned to try to take over Israeli communities in a time of major conflict.
Hezbollah could opt for an expanded operation that combines its new technology, such as precision-guided munitions it acquired from Iran.
This could also combine with the drones that it has used over the last two decades and with which Iran has become more proficient.
A complex Hezbollah operation like this would seek to humiliate Israel and show off the terrorist group’s deterrence capabilities. It might seek to use a precision-guided weapon to strike at critical infrastructure – or merely to show how far it can fire such a missile in an attempt to evade Israel’s air defenses.
Hezbollah has bragged in the past about sending drones into Israeli airspace.
In 2012, it claimed to have flown a drone over Israel. There have been incidents with small Hezbollah drones over the past year.
The 2012 incident is still the most serious. Hezbollah has been known to have contacts in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and Israel has recently busted two PFLP cells backed by Iran.
This potentially gives Hezbollah a longer arm in terms of retaliation options. Combining its infrastructure in Lebanon with precision-guided weapons and allies in the West Bank or Gaza may appeal to its asymmetrical warfare plans. This would add a new threat to its arsenal and also not risk a border escalation.
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