What are Iran’s calculations against the US today?
Recent statements paint a picture of a solidifying worldview in Iran that harkens back not only to the era of the Iran- Iraq War, but also its view of a ‘ final victory’ against the West
Iran is seizing on an opportunity to confront the US after analyzing current American policies and judging that Washington’s push for new sanctions will fail. That policy is clear from Iran’s constant statements.
Whether it is its Foreign Minister Javad Zarif hinting that the “book is not closed” on the US killing of IRGC Quds Force commander Soleimani, or Iranian commemorations of the 40th anniversary of the Iran- Iraq War with statements boasting it can defeat the US in a similar war, Iran is thinking tactically and strategically.
Iran has sent troops to the Kavkaz drill with Russia, alongside other countries it hopes to work with. Who else is there? Armenia, Belarus, China, Myanmar and Pakistan have sent 1,000 troops, Russia’s TASS reported on Monday.
Zarif spoke to his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, who wants to move away from a Western- led international world order.
The Kavkaz drill is an embodiment of the potential Russia- Iran- China alliance system, and Iran’s Press TV highlights it. Iran also is keenly observing Russia’s “Slavik Brotherhood” drill this week. A rising Russia will confront the West and help Iran, Tehran’s planners think.
Iran’s military is preparing arms purchases from Russia and China. It knows China recently has been more robust in sending planes to challenge the US and Taiwan.
Meanwhile, Iranian media highlight Syrian concerns that the US sent “60 vehicles” to eastern Syria. Tehran claims the US is “looting” Syrian oil.
Iran is keenly aware that Europe is concerned about US “unilateral action,” and it wants to exploit this rift. It also hopes it can prey on US election chaos, arguing that it wants peace, not conflict.
The goal is get the Europeans to challenge America in the West while bringing in China and Russia at the UN as well. Iranian media highlight Russian and Chinese support every day.
Not only does Iran believe this, it also says as the arms embargo ends, it will buy weapons from China and Russia and forego imports from Europe if necessary. The US has vowed to stop these arms acquisitions.
Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, has said there is no need to import arms because Iran can produce enough to be an exporter and will soon be sending arms abroad. Iran already does this clandestinely with Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. But now it wants to up its game.
Meanwhile, the US says Iran is working against it – alongside North Korea – on long- range missile development.
Taken together, the Iranian statements by Zarif, Hajizadeh, the supreme leader and others paint a picture of a solidifying worldview in Iran that hearkens back not only to the era of the Iran- Iraq War and Iran’s belief in its abilities to triumph, but also to its view of a final victory in achieving an alliance against the West.
While these are still merely a series of small points of light for Tehran, the rising chorus of voices represents the clear calculations of the regime. It only has to put these plans into action on the diplomatic, military and economic levels. It has prepared for this for more than a decade and senses its time has come.