‘ Maritime deal could help Israel alter perception on Hezbollah’
Multiple ex- IDF intelligence officials put out a report through INSS ( Institute for National Securities Studies) on Tuesday flagging multiple historic and unique opportunities Israel has at this moment to alter how Hezbollah is perceived in Lebanon and worldwide.
The report was authored by former IDF intelligence officers Lt.- Col. ( res.) David Siman- Tov and Lt.- Col. ( res.) and National Security Council official Orna Mizrahi as well as former Prime Minister’s Office counter- terror official Yoram Schweitzer.
According to the report, “the political- cognitive struggle is part of the campaign waged by Israel designed to weaken Hezbollah and restrain its activity against Israel.”
“Israel’s cognitive campaign aims to influence the Lebanese population, thereby increasing the pressure on the organization; international public opinion; Arab countries; and Hezbollah’s leadership,” said the authors. Two key events, which the report drew on to say that Israel might actually have a much bigger opening for progress than in any time in recent memory, were the recent disastrous explosions in Lebanon, which many blamed on Hezbollah, and the newly announced negotiations between Lebanon and Israel over sharing maritime resources.
Because of the current largescale criticism of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the report said that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah “is particularly sensitive to allegations that his organization is endangering civilians in Lebanon by using them as human shields while storing explosives in civilian environments, thereby creating a ticking bomb.” This criticism spiked following the deadly explosion at the Beirut Port on August 4, in which about 200 people were killed and large portions of the city were decimated.
Additional explosions on September 22, October 9 and October 10 heightened the general feeling of anxiety in Beirut.
The current stage of the cognitive campaign to delegitimize Hezbollah has featured Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s UN speech that exposed Hezbollah’s weapons stockpiles in the midst of the civilian population in the heart of Beirut and the organization’s attempts to deny it that same evening.
Hezbollah immediately responded to Netanyahu’s speech with a tour of one of the sites to disprove the accusations, claiming that the missile factory was actually a civilian workshop. However, the report said that, “The IDF subsequently used photographs taken during the tour of the plant to prove that the equipment in the workshop was used to manufacture missiles, and also identified the ‘ factory manager’ as a member of Hezbollah.”
Outgoing IDF intelligence analysis chief Brig.- Gen. Doron Shalom recently told Yediot Aharonot that the event greatly embarrassed Hezbollah, and demonstrated Israel’s intelligence superiority.
The other major component helping Israel’s efforts regarding Hezbollah is that negotiations on marking the maritime border between Lebanon and Israel have begun, following the collapse of Lebanon’s economic, political and health systems.
All of this takes place in the shadow of the coronavirus crisis that has hit most countries, but has brought Lebanon to its knees socio- economically to an even greater degree.
The maritime negotiations “give Israel an opportunity to deliver positive messages about the expected advantages for Lebanon and its citizens if they abandon the belligerence dictated by Hezbollah, which is also driven by foreign interests, in favor of political and economic dialogue aimed at solving maritime and land territorial disputes.”
Hezbollah has tried to downplay the negotiations as being narrow and practical, fearful of any implication of momentum toward normalizing with Israel.
The report concluded that, “The difficult situation in Lebanon is likely to result in a more favorable response among a Lebanese public bearing the brunt of the crisis to the message that Hezbollah is one of the main parties to blame.”