In Iran nuclear standoff, everyone blinked. Now what?

In the ongoing nuclear standoff involving the US and Iran – with Israel and the moderate Sunni Arab states the most actively interested parties on the sidelines – everyone has now blinked.

Where that means the nuclear standoff will go next is less certain.

The US blinked first. Israeli intelligence sources have explained that when Washington saw that Ebrahim Raisi would be elected president of Iran, it softened some of its red lines, hoping to wrap up a deal before he came on.

These softened positions included showing a willingness to let the Islamic Republic place its advanced centrifuges – which could allow it to produce material for a nuclear bomb at a faster rate – in storage as opposed to the original demand that almost all be destroyed.

Under the 2015 JCPOA Iran nuclear deal, Tehran was allowed to retain a very limited number of its advanced centrifuges, compared to the hundreds it has operating now.

The Biden administration has reportedly shown some additional flexibility regarding which sanctions it would remove as part of a return to the deal.

These pre-Raisi concessions are part of what may have encouraged the new Iranian leader to seek more concessions by stalling the negotiations for four months and barreling forward with 60% enrichment – only one step down from the 90% needed for weapons-grade uranium.

Last week, the Islamic Republic agreed to renew talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency over nuclear inspections and allowed the agency initial access to some of its nuclear observation equipment after months of locking out the agency’s inspectors.

Notably, some of the equipment was reported as damaged, and the IAEA gave its