FAO: Climate change, conflict decimate Syria’s grain crop
DUBAI (Reuters) – Climate change, a faltering economy and residual security issues have decimated Syria’s 2022 grain crop, leaving the majority of its farmers in a precarious position, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said.
Syria’s 2022 wheat harvest amounted to around one million tons, down some 75% from precrisis volumes, while barley was almost non-existent, FAO’s Syria Representative Mike Robson told Reuters.
Erratic rainfall patterns in the past two seasons have shrunk Syria’s wheat crop from around four million tons annually prewar, enough to feed itself and export to neighboring countries in a good year.
Now, after more than a decade of conflict, many farmers are struggling with harsh economic conditions while having to adapt to the new realities of changing weather conditions.
The meager harvest adds strain on Syria’s sanctions-hit government as it struggles to source wheat from the international market. Food is not restricted by Western sanctions, but banking restrictions and asset freezes have made it difficult for most trading houses to do business with Damascus.
International import tenders conducted by the state’s main grain buyer, Hoboob, have repeatedly failed in previous years with most wheat sourced from Russia.
Global wheat prices have also surged since February, after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine halted grain exports from the Black Sea for months.
“Climate change isn’t easy anyway, but it is doubly not easy in a place like Syria with high inflation, no power, no good quality inputs and some residual security issues that are still playing up in parts of the country,” Robson said.
The bulk of Syria’s wheat crop, or around 70%, relies on rainfall with irrigation underdeveloped due to war.
Compared to planted areas, the harvest was around 15% of what farmers expected of the rain-fed wheat areas.
“When the rain fell, it was concentrated and it didn’t follow traditional patters,” Robson said.
“A late start to the rainfall meant that farmers were delayed in planting and they couldn’t prepare their land in time, and then the rains finished early by March,” he said.
Farmers in Syria typically plant their wheat crop around November-December and harvest in May-June.
Syria’s economy is also faltering under the weight of its complex, multi-sided conflict, now in its 12th year.
The collapse of the Syrian pound has driven up the price of good quality fertilizers, seeds and fuel needed to power water pumps. On Monday, Syria further weakened its official exchange rate to the US dollar by roughly 7%.
The productivity of one hectare of wheat planted in irrigated lands should be around three to four tons, but is currently at only around two as farmers struggle with agricultural inputs. The one million ton
production figure is far lower than government estimates of around 1.7 million tons.
The FAO estimate translates into a need to import around two million tons from abroad to feed government-controlled areas.
A drop in global wheat prices in August – partly on the back of grain exports resuming from Ukraine under a July deal between Kyiv and Moscow – makes the situation less dire than a couple of months ago, but there are still concerns over the government’s ability to provide funding for purchases.
With the barley crop also failing, some sheep herders are choosing to sell most of their animals, as they are unable to feed them.
Syria used to be able to produce around four to five million tons of barley feed a year, but, this year, many are struggling to keep their livelihood.
“When they needed to buy feed, sheep farmers used to sell one animal to buy a ton of barley for instance, and they can feed 20 with that,” Robson said. “This year, they would need to sell 10 animals.”
The effects are already being felt in the food market where poultry meat is now selling for more than lamb, as financially struggling farmers continue to sell their sheep.