Oscars nominations 2023: The final predictions
los anGeles (los angeles Times/ Tns) – oscar nominations arrive Tuesday and, judging from the conversations I’ve had with film academy members, there are going to be a lot of surprises when the slate is revealed. There’s no best picture front-runner and loyalties are splintered in a dozen different directions. someone even put Don’t Worry Darling at the top of their ballot. Welcome to the Victory project? probably not, but points for originality!
one producer voter told me he had trouble finding 10 movies to put on his best picture ballot, a reflection either on his lack of enthusiasm for this year’s field or perhaps the fact that he has watched Top Gun: Maverick 13 times and didn’t bother with other contenders. another told me she could have put any one of 20 movies on her best picture ballot – and any one of five in the top slot. no sequels, though, she sniffed. The oscars should be about original ideas.
of course, the oscars should be a lot of things – recognizing excellence in every field of filmmaking, glitz and glamour, remaining in your seat even after a comedian insults your wife with a lame joke – but they usually fall short. I took that into account when putting together these nominations predictions for all 23 categories to be announced january 24. and you should certainly remember it before you let anything the academy does enrage you. Forget it, jake. It’s the oscars.
Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar: The Way of Water The Banshees of Inisherin Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick Triangle of Sadness
The Whale
possible snub: Triangle of Sadness possible surprise: Too many to mention
some people are a little freaked out that Avatar: The Way of Water missed
the cut with the producers Guild, but that probably had more to do with its late-breaking arrival than any resistance to space whales or petty jealousies relating to filmmaker james Cameron amassing another mountain of money.
It’s a (pretty) sure bet to be nominated, right alongside the other locks: Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, Top Gun: Maverick, Elvis, Tár and The Fabelmans.
after that, you could make a case for any of 10 contenders to fill the remaining three spots. Keeping my expectations low, I’m going to go with the three movies that took the greatest pains to bludgeon audiences with their themes – All Quiet on the Western Front (war is hell!), The Whale
(empathy is essential!) and Triangle of Sadness (vomiting is hilarious!).
In this case, I’m with my producer friend. I’d rather watch Top Gun: Maverick another dozen times than sit through these three films again. here’s hoping that voters prove me wrong and nominate Aftersun, Women Talking and RRR instead.
Director
james Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Todd Field, Tár daniel Kwan and daniel scheinert,
aka daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
martin mcdonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
steven spielberg, The Fabelmans
possible snub: Cameron possible surprise: Baz luhrmann, Elvis
directors branch voters have rewarded an international filmmaker four straight years, making it tempting to pick German director edward Berger for the visceral onslaught he brought to All Quiet on the Western Front.
or maybe there’s a path for RRR’s
s.s. rajamouli, a master of exuberant spectacle. or perhaps voters will finally honor the brand name of exuberant spectacle, luhrmann. Women have won the past two years. are they really going to be shut out in 2023? (asking for sarah polley, Charlotte Wells and Gina prince-Bythewood, among others.) all that said, I’m sticking with Cameron, the director who moved the digital realm of the art form forward.
Actress
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Viola davis, The Woman King
danielle deadwyler, Till
michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
michelle yeoh, Everything Everywhere
All at Once
possible snub: Williams possible surprise: ana de armas, Blonde
Four hours before nominations voting closed on Tuesday, amy adams led a virtual conversation with andrea riseborough to support her searing turn as an addict in To Leslie, a movie that premiered in march at south by southwest and grossed $27,000 in its brief theatrical run.
The word amazing was used at least a dozen times – and not without justification. adams’s support followed a similar event moderated by Kate Winslet, who gushed: you should be up for everything. you should be winning everything. andrea riseborough, I think this is the greatest female performance on screen I have ever seen in my life.
unfortunately, not many other voters have seen it, making the grassroots campaign for riseborough a bittersweet affair.
This is a category packed with powerhouse performances, leaving many wondering if Williams’s saG awards snub will be repeated at the oscars. as much as de armas deserves some reward for gutting her way through andrew dominik’s wretched marilyn monroe biopic, I think Williams will earn her fifth oscar nomination for
giving The Fabelmans its heart and soul.
Actor
austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Tom hanks, a man Called otto Bill nighy, Living
possible snub: hanks possible surprise: paul mescal, Aftersun
Butler, Farrell, Fraser and nighy will earn nominations – all coming in as first-timers. looking at the other contenders, it’s easier laying out why they won’t be nominated than making a case for their inclusion.
mescal: Too young, plus the movie is more filmmaker-driven. does Tom Cruise really warrant a nod for playing “Tom Cruise” in Top Gun: Maverick? no. he’ll get his reward as a producer of the film. hugh jackman in The Son? dear God, not for that horrible, manipulative movie.
so... I’m going to go a little nuts and predict... hanks for an elevated hallmark movie that made a theater full of academy members cry back in december. That might be just enough in this field. (unless it’s adam sandler for Hustle. Who doesn’t love the sandman?!?)
Supporting actress
angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
jamie lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
stephanie hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
possible snub: hsu possible surprise: jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Women Talking belongs in the conversation for the year’s best ensemble, so it feels just plain wrong that not one member of its cast could show up among the nominees. Buckley brought a caustic wit and ferocious spirit to sarah polley’s brilliant drama. I just wonder: a) how many acting branch voters saw the movie and B) will they (can they?) focus on just one member of the cast in marking their ballots? Both questions give me pause.
Supporting actor
paul dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
judd hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
possible snub: hirsch possible surprise: eddie redmayne, The Good Nurse
I haven’t mentioned damien Chazelle’s Babylon yet, a hyperventilated ode to cinema undone by its director’s indulgence. It does have a cadre of passionate supporters, though, and perhaps actors branch members will buy into Brad pitt’s charismatic turn as a movie star facing a career crossroads. you couldn’t avoid seeing him at the Globes, that’s for sure!
meanwhile, hirsch isn’t in The Fabelmans much, but I can’t help remembering the audience at the premiere erupting into applause after his big scene. It’s commanding and unforgettable, much like judi dench’s brief oscar-winning turn in I think that’s enough to get him in.