IDF’s real worry is spread of Jenin syndrome
Attempted Hamas takeover after Abbas dies or a multifront Palestinian civil war could be in cards
Last week’s military operation in Jenin and the terrorist attacks over the weekend did not occur in a vacuum.
The Jerusalem Post has learned that even after the recent incidents, the general approach of the IDF is that its two main moves – completing portions of the West Bank barrier wall and preemptive raids – have and will succeed over time.
The idea is that Israel is in a completely different place now from where it was before additions were made to the barrier over the past 11 months.
The speed of the new wall additions has been unprecedented because they have been occurring in multiple spots simultaneously, using a larger and more sophisticated set of specialized construction machines than in the past.
Not only were additions made to the wall itself, but there are various wires and obstacles surrounding the wall that make it more difficult to traverse.
However, the game for the IDF is not just about physically stopping people from crossing the border; it knows that any barrier can be broken given sufficient time and resources.
Even if someone manages to break through all of the additions in the wall, it will take them longer. New sensors will have gone off earlier, and it will be much easier to catch the intruders just as they think they have gotten through and are home free.
The IDF estimates that Palestinians who have been illegally crossing the border know that Israel’s rules of engagements have become tougher. This means that anyone who crosses illegally and tries to run is likely to be immediately wounded in the legs.
While the goal of soldiers in such cases is to prevent intruders from escaping arrest by firing at their legs, the IDF’s view is that Palestinians know no one’s aim is perfect, and they could be killed accidentally. That means illegally crossing the barrier is both harder and more deadly.
It will take about 12 to 18 months to finish the barrier. That means there are still plenty of holes and that Israel will be vulnerable for the foreseeable future, even if it is less vulnerable than before. This is where the regular night raids come into play.
The Post has learned that looking down from “the 30,000 feet” big-picture level, part of the current strategy of the
IDF’s West Bank commanders is to bring the fight to terrorists’ home turf, rather than wait for them to bring it into the West Bank or within the Green Line.
PART OF the idea is that fewer Israelis will be killed as a result of catching terrorists before they even try to break through
the barrier. IDF and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) intelligence units have reached new highs for locating terrorists before they are fully ready to carry out an attack.
Another piece is the hope that the broader Palestinian community will lose patience with the terrorists
and demand quiet.
The IDF also believes it has learned a variety of lessons about how to combat Palestinians in their villages without losing soldiers. Not only do IDF forces have armored vehicles, but they also maneuver in ways to make it difficult to fire on soldiers who enter a targeted residence.
Last week, the IDF rapidly removed more than 30 barricades that Palestinians in Jenin had used to obstruct roads. This showed that security forces are ready with all kinds of special vehicles and units to quickly eliminate any obstacles in their path.
Removing barricades and avoiding all kinds of improvised explosives – one was recently hidden within a motorcycle being ridden by a teenager – is now part of IDF West Bank training.
One perspective on why no soldiers were hurt in the recent battle in Jenin, and why no soldiers are usually hurt in the ongoing, almost nightly raids, is because the Palestinian fighters they are encountering are untrained.
Moreover, the IDF believes many of the fighters are not especially committed to the cause of risking their life while fighting the IDF.
Getting guns is extremely easy for Palestinians, and many post pictures of them on social media without giving the issue much deeper thought.
The way the IDF sees it, groups such as the Lions’ Den are not serious security threats that could displace Hamas, but they may contain a small number of committed gunmen.
The IDF’s West Bank commanders are not worried about any particular incident (which could change if the spike in terrorist attacks continues to rise), but rather a strategic blowup, such as when 87-year-old Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas dies, leaving a massive power vacuum behind.
Israeli analysts are worried that the new government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not getting along with the PA could worsen tensions. The IDF believes many Palestinians are not as interested in internal Israeli politics as they used to be and as Israelis think.
The real danger – about which the IDF and Shin Bet are worried – is either an attempted Hamas takeover after Abbas dies or a multifront Palestinian civil war with no one in control and no partner on the other side.
In other words, if other major Palestinian cities become more like Jenin, where there is no real solution, such a civil war could spill over into Israel on a whole new level and leave Jerusalem with almost no point of contact.
Among the things that could undermine the progress of the barrier and raids, this is what keeps the IDF up at night.