Saudi arabia seeks to reshape the mideast
the may 19 arab league summit in jeddah, with the participation of all 22 arab league member states, was a show of force for saudi diplomacy, which has successfully promoted significant reconciliation and mediation in the middle east and arab world during the past two years. In fact, saudi arabia has been engaged in efforts to resolve five regional conflict zones in order to bolster its status and regional stability.
Its first recent foray into the intricacies of regional disputes was aimed at ending the boycott imposed on Qatar in 2017 by the saudis, united arab emirates, Bahrain and egypt. It ended with american mediation in early 2021, although Qatar failed to meet most of the boycotters’ demands.
the second saudi regional move was intended to thaw its relations, and those of other Gulf states, with Iran. Indeed, with Chinese mediation, saudi arabia and Iran renewed diplomatic relations (march 2023) and signed economic agreements.
the rapprochement is the result of common interests and does not constitute an ideological or religious change on the part of the sunni establishment vis-à-vis Iran’s shiites. the saudis hope the restored relations can prevent further attacks by Iran or its proxies on saudi oil facilities, promote a diplomatic settlement to the yemen civil war, and develop bilateral trade with Iran.
the third saudi involvement targeted the prolonged syrian crisis. It included renewed saudi-syrian diplomatic relations and restored syria to the fold of the arab world, which expelled it in 2011 over the Bashar assad regime’s war crimes against insurgents. Indeed, Bashar’s appearance at the jeddah summit marked syria’s return to the arab league and the arab world.
Beyond ending one of the most intractable conflicts in the arab world over the past decade, the move holds out hope of a more balanced syrian regional policy that does not rely entirely on Iran and hezbollah. syria, it should be remembered, played an important role in the inter-arab system and cooperated extensively with egypt and saudi arabia until the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War in 1980.
the fourth saudi initiative was intended to promote a compromise in the conflict raging in yemen, which lies on its southern border. Beyond periodic harassment of the saudis by the Iranian-backed houthis, the civil war has claimed thousands of lives and caused a massive humanitarian crisis.
having learned from the civil war in yemen in the 1960s that a military campaign would not defeat the rebels, it sought a diplomatic solution. the renewed relations with Iran are intended, among other things, to allow the end of this conflict.
the civil war in sudan is the fifth arena targeted by saudi diplomacy, in a bid to promote dialogue and agreement between the rival factions. at this stage, it is difficult to assess prospects of the dialogue between the factions taking place on saudi soil, but the sudanese will presumably want to avoid the risk of long-term economic and financial damage by undermining saudi prestige.
the saudis clearly prepared the ground well to ensure broad agreement at the arab league summit on all pressing issues. no wonder one arab observer described it as the “Conference of Bridges.”
Indeed, the concluding statement related in detail to each arab world conflict, with special emphasis on the palestinian issue, syria, lebanon, yemen, sudan and libya, and adopting an almost unified position on all these issues. the communique called for preserving states’ sovereignty, preserving the integrity of territorial borders, withdrawing all foreign forces, and restoring stability and personal security.
the announcement once again emphasized the centrality of the palestinian issue for the entire arab nation, the arab identity of occupied east jerusalem, and the right to establish a palestinian state within the 1967 borders, with east jerusalem as its capital.
like every summit over the past two decades, it affirmed the arab states’ commitment to the arab peace Initiative as a basis for reviving peace efforts in the middle east. successive Israeli governments have ignored the relatively conciliatory position of the arab states on resolving the conflict with the palestinians, and the current government will presumably continue to ignore it.
the announcement ostensibly demonstrates impressive unanimity in the arab world. the bottom line, however, is that none of the arab states, not even saudi arabia, is capable of solving, or making significant advances in solving these problems. In fact, no arab country, not even the wealthy Gulf states, can impose its position on the actors involved in the conflicts.
moreover, most conflicts involve external non-arab actors – russia, the united states, turkey, Iran, Israel and others – over which the arab states have no real leverage, except for the oil weapon, which they have proven reluctant to use to avoid cutting into their profits.
many scholars and observers view the arab league – and its supreme institution, the arab league summit – as an outdated organization. the late egyptian national leader saad Zaghloul is often quoted as having ridiculed the idea of arab unity even before the league was established, saying that “zero plus zero equals zero.”
however, if the organization is so meaningless, why do the arab states insist on holding periodic league sessions and convening summits frequently (in fact almost every year since 2000)? the answer is the need to preserve arab identity as a broad framework of identification, especially in an era of change.
moreover, it is precisely the league that grants legitimacy to the arab territorial state. Given the attempts to change some of these borders during the arab spring revolutions, the league was destined to play an important symbolic role in preserving them.
thus, although some of these borders were created by Western colonialism, they are now seen as sacrosanct. What is more, although territorial struggles continue in syria, libya, yemen and sudan, the arab league clearly seeks to preserve the existing territorial order. and this is perhaps its main importance.
the new saudi-balanced position in the middle east following its rapprochement with syria and Iran does not necessarily mean bad news for Israel. as an actor traditionally promoting regional security and the initiator of two peace plans, saudi arabia still shares many mutual interests with Israel.
moreover, various leaks from Washington confirm that secret american-saudi-Israeli contacts about a possible normalization agreement are still being held. thus, from an Israeli point of view, the newly elevated saudi position in the arab world makes a bilateral agreement even more desirable in terms of its ability to impact the region.