Keeping the enemy off-balance
the perception that Israeli society was crumbling and that the reservists would not rally to the flag in times of danger, prevailed among our enemies and inspired them to attack us. this was proven false when Israel stood firm as any rock and fought for its existence from october 7 onward with unsurpassed solidarity.
the year 2023 brought one of the deepest crises in the history of Israeli society. Its origins dated half a decade back, to when Israel entered five rounds of elections and had great difficulty assembling a government. the government that was finally formed, with a decisive majority of 64 seats, announced a planned series of changes in the judicial system, and many protests broke out against the plan, sparking a severe societal crisis.
our enemies, and the world at large, were well aware of the significant crisis unfolding in Israel. Various exclamations, such as “the prime minister will have no army,” stimulated the “jihad glands” of our enemies across the fence. It strengthened their estimation that Israel was profoundly crisis-ridden, with its army in doubtful readiness, its leadership in doubtful functionality, and Israeli society irreparably divided and polarized, so that an attack by them could completely shatter the state of Israel and definitively end the story of the jewish state. that was the thinking of hamas leader yahya sinwar, of the Iranians, and of the Iranian proxies in lebanon and other arenas.
our enemies were confident that the sudden october 7 attack would catch us Israelis unready. they relied most of all on the crumbling of Israeli society to make possible their infiltration into every corner of the land of Israel and their conquest of broad swaths of it.
they expected Israeli resistance to be lax, weak, and ineffectual, constituting a historic opportunity for toppling the state of Israel. their goal was to conquer jerusalem and the entire country, as evidenced by the name they chose for the operation: “the al-aqsa flood.”simultaneously, hamas sought to establish a cohesive alliance with the arabs of judea and samaria, and even a portion of the Israeli arabs who inclined toward the palestinian vision, with hezbollah in the north, and with other Iranian proxies from syria, Iraq, yemen, and elsewhere.
the euphorIa and jubilation among hamas – along with their estimation that Israel would predictably react to the attack with a limited counter-operation primarily from the air, refrain from a land incursion, and negotiate for the release of hostages – did not bear fruit. Granted, Israel was certainly caught by surprise, but our enemies’ evaluation of the situation was overconfident. from the first moments of the sudden october 7 attack, the invasion of the nukhba forces (hamas’s special forces), and the infiltration into Israeli territory by terrorists affiliated with hamas and palestinian Islamic jihad, as well as by many other Gazan civilians, the nation of Israel stepped up to defend itself.
many Israelis even reported to duty without receiving emergency orders and without being summoned. Civilians took up their weapons and went out into combat. enlisted soldiers, reservists, officers, police, and others from throughout the country dashed into the fray at the “Gaza envelope” (the Israeli communities adjacent to the Gaza strip). some battled terrorists face to face, others sped to different locations in order to defend against further invasion across the borders of other countries.
In almost no Israeli home did the day pass without a ringing telephone. people rushed from the communities of judea and samaria to defend the communities near Gaza. special units and officers staying in northern Israel and tel aviv headed for the Gaza envelope to defend and recapture the military bases and communities that had been invaded.
heroic civilians arrived to rescue survivors who had fled from the re’im festival site. as in the yom Kippur War 50 years before – on october 6, 1973 – men in skullcaps once more donned their uniforms on a holiday, and on the sabbath. on that day, the simhat torah sabbath of october 7, and since then, everyone – left wing, right wing, secular, observant, haredi, opponents and proponents of the judicial reform – fought shoulder to shoulder in defense of the homeland.
and if october 7 shattered Israel’s underlying strategic assumption that hamas had been deterred, it shattered sinwar and the Iranians’ underlying strategic assumption seven times over.
sinwar and hamas expected direct intervention from hezbollah; and over 100 days after the outbreak of the war, they are still waiting for nasrallah to fully enter the fray. hamas feels abandoned because it was certain that hezbollah, rather than contenting itself with skirmishes and with inflicting damage and loss of life at the border, would join in an all-out war and so would Iran’s other proxies. hamas aspired with all its might, to a merging of the fronts – a nightmare scenario that was often raised.
but does nasrallah want to endanger lebanon with a war? Is Iran willing to prioritize the preservation of hamas (a sunni organization) over hezbollah (a shi’ite organization)?
the concept of deterrence did change its meaning on october 7, the notion that our enemies were deterred did collapse, and we were the first to suffer for our misconception. but it seems nonetheless that Israel’s determined response, its solidarity, and the fighting spirit of more than 350,000 reserve soldiers, whose rate of response to the summons was 150% on the various fronts, along with the mighty volunteerism of the Israeli people, caused hamas, nasrallah, and the Iranians with their various proxies to understand one thing: the nation of Israel is unified, responsive, and united in its fight.
that message of Israeli solidarity is of unsurpassed importance, and in fact, it confused all our enemies. they had expected to mount an attack against a crumbling society and were sure they would be driving the last nail into its coffin. but despite the wariness that must be attached to the use of a term like “deterrence” today, there is no doubt that Israel’s response and its exceptional spirit, generosity, volunteerism, and solidarity did deter them.
WIth all its sectors willing to set their disputes aside and focus solely on defending the homeland, the Israeli society sent an important message both to its enemies and to the world at large: the nation of Israel is strong, and is willing to do everything necessary in order to defend its homeland.
that same homeland, with its history spanning thousands of years, that same eternal nation, that same land to which the exiles flocked in a wondrous, gigantic return unprecedented in history, that same state that was founded in 1948 and whose declaration of the establishment of the state of Israel says “the land of Israel was the birthplace of the jewish people,” arose like a vision, like a law of nature, like a biblical prophecy, that same bible which is holy both to judaism and to Christianity.
the resurgence of the jewish nation in the land of Israel, the idea of Zionism, may constitute a verification of the prophetic vision and living proof, if you will, of the divine concept for all who believe in it – the concept that something does, in practice, transcend the laws of nature. Whether jewish, muslim, Christian, buddhist, or atheist, no one can remain indifferent to the judaism that is assuming a new aspect as a nation.
the name hamas gave to the war, “the al-aqsa flood,” merely emphasizes the holy War component focused on the city sacred to all three religions, jerusalem; it makes clear the importance of the theological concern within the entire issue.
this year, the nation of Israel has been seeking to redefine itself. on october 7, not only our enemies and the world at large discover the spirit of holiness and solidarity that animated us through the millennia and caused us to return to our home, but we too were reminded of who we are.
and just as in basketball, where the sixth player is the crowd, for Israel and the Idf there is the spirit of judaism, Zionism, Israeliness, solidarity, God, and meshuggaas (yiddish for craziness, eccentricity). that spirit serves as the greatest deterrent.
our national “jewish” fortitude is something almost metaphysical, greater than wisdom, and it certainly is doing the job because the nation of Israel is alive and kicking.
The writer is a researcher at the Israel Defense and Security Forum.