Analysts split over another Bank of Israel rate cut or pause
The Bank of Israel may lower short-term interest rates for a second straight month next week as the economy slows and inflation eases due to Israel’s war with Hamas, but analysts see a good chance of no move.
Of 14 economists polled by Reuters, seven projected the Bank of Israel would lower its benchmark rate by a quarter-point to 4.25% when it announces its decision on Monday at 4 p.m.
Another seven forecast no move, but economists agree the key rate will likely decline to 3.5%-4% in the coming year from its current 4.5%.
Ahead of the bank’s January 1 decision, 14 economists surveyed had also been evenly split, with the central bank ultimately cutting its rate 25 basis points – its first reduction since 2020 after an aggressive rate-hiking cycle.
At the time, Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron said the pace of future cuts partly depended on fiscal policy and how Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government of far right and religious parties would keep to responsible fiscal policy.
Since then, the annual inflation rate has dipped to 2.6% while fourth-quarter economic activity contracted an annual 19.4% from the prior three months.
Monday’s decision “could go either way between a hold and a cut,” said Citi economist Michel Nies, who marginally expects a reduction. “What tips the balance, in our view, is the fact that rates are well into restrictive territory.”
For the most part, analysts are sharply divided over how the central bank views the current situation.
On one side, those such as the Meitav Dash brokerage chief economist Alex Zabezhinsky say inflation has moved back to a 1-3% target, economic growth is recovering but not enough, the shekel has rebounded, housing prices are falling, and the slowing trend of bank credit to households and businesses continues.
Zabezhinsky downplayed central bank fears about financial market stability after the markets largely shrugged off a Moody’s credit rating downgrade this month.
He noted that while the central bank has said rate cuts would be gradual, “in light of the rapid decrease in inflation and the other circumstances, it is expected to adjust the policy to the circumstances.”
However, others like Mizrahi-Tefahot Bank chief strategist Yonie Fanning, see the situation differently, arguing that price pressures are set to rise amid increases in air fares and food, while economic data should “correct” in the first quarter and the shekel has shown a bit of weakness of late.
Some economists also point to what they say is a loose 2024 state budget that adds wartime spending.
“Combining this with the fact that the Federal Reserve is not expected to cut any time soon, and there is some speculation of a hike, paves the way to keeping local rates unchanged for now,” Fanning said.
Israel’s economy grew 2% in 2023 and is expected to grow at a similar pace as long as the war against Hamas stays contained to Gaza and doesn’t expand.
Bank of Israel’s Yaron will on Monday at 4.15 p.m. hold a news briefing after the rate decision is announced. (Reuters)